Critical infrastructures: cybercrime and climate change are the biggest threats

The Office of Technology Assessment of the German Bundestag (TAB) has published the initial results of its strategic foresight on the resilience of critical infrastructures (Kritis) with a focus on the three infrastructure systems of energy, agriculture and food as well as transport and mobility. According to this foresight report, extreme weather events associated with climate change are the constant that threatens the functionality and stability of all these critical infrastructure sectors. In the transport and energy sectors, the researchers also see cybercrime as a major problem. In the supply of electricity, gas etc., they also cite geopolitical conflicts as a massive challenge.

The Bundestag has commissioned the TAB 2023 to expand its foresight activities to enable "future-oriented policy-making" in the face of crises such as the Russian war of aggression against Ukraine and advancing climate change as well as "groundbreaking technical innovations" such as generative artificial intelligence (AI). With the Foresight Report 2024, the scientists are introducing a resilience radar. The aim is to identify trends and systemic risks such as pandemics, concentration of power in the hands of big tech companies or blackouts that are relevant to the resilience of Kritis.

Need for research into robot swarms and AI in the power grid

"Growing system complexity and increasing digitalization are increasing the risks posed by cyberattacks, technology failure and limited technology controllability," write the researchers in the chapter on energy supply, for example. Independence from fossil fuels is to be achieved through a massive expansion of renewable energies, the necessary grid expansion, electrification and sector coupling. The infrastructure system is complex and is undergoing continuous change, not least due to the transformation efforts. The degree of robustness of the energy system as a whole against all systemic risks is only rated as "medium" by the experts surveyed. Topics such as decentralization, the role of hydrogen and AI applications in the grid need to be examined in greater depth.

According to the report, the transport sector is dominated by alternative drive systems, networked mobility solutions and automated and autonomous driving. The degree of resilience is also considered average here. The electrification of inland waterway transport and integrated mobility services in passenger transport, as well as connections using robotic vehicles, are to be examined in more detail. The TAB has identified market dependencies and uncertain supply chains, the deterioration of ecological production bases, growing competition for land use and digitalization as "trend clusters" in agriculture. The degree of robustness here is assessed as "rather low", while the threat level is high. Further research should be conducted into field robots, robot swarms and water management, for example.

(olb)