Change through AI: probably three million jobs affected in Germany

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The rapid introduction of artificial intelligence systems in companies means that many employees in Germany will have to prepare for serious career changes. According to a recent study by the McKinsey Global Institute (MGI), which was published in Düsseldorf on Thursday, up to three million jobs in Germany would be affected by a change by 2030, corresponding to seven percent of total employment.

Many job changes in prospect

The McKinsey researchers' scenario assumes an accelerated introduction of AI systems in the USA and Europe. This could lead to the automation of almost a third of working hours by 2030. This figure could even rise to 45 percent in the EU by 2035. According to the calculations, almost twelve million job changes could be necessary in both Europe and the United States by 2030. In Europe, this would correspond to 6.5 percent of current jobs.

The authors of the study believe that this trend could lead to a negative divergence in the labor market. On the one hand, highly qualified jobs with above-average pay could hardly be filled. On the other hand, there is a risk of an oversupply of workers in the low-wage sector. In Europe, the proportion of high-paid occupations could rise by 1.8 percentage points, while the proportion of low-paid occupations could fall by 1.4 percentage points.

Office jobs particularly affected

The McKinsey researchers see the most significant changes coming to office jobs in the administrative areas of companies and public institutions. More than every second job change caused by AI (54%) in Germany would fall into this area. Alongside Italy, Germany is particularly affected as office support jobs account for a high proportion of total employment. Customer service and sales followed with 17 percent, while 16 percent of jobs in production were affected.

The best way for potentially affected employees to protect themselves from being sidelined by AI is through training and other qualification measures. According to the study, the demand for technical skills will increase significantly, by 25 percent in Europe alone. However, social and emotional skills will also be in greater demand (up 12 percent).

Productivity growth could increase

Under these conditions, the McKinsey researchers see the economic consequences as positive: an accelerated introduction of artificial intelligence and effective upskilling of employees in the European economy could increase the annual productivity growth rate in Europe to three percent by 2030. The study by the McKinsey Global Institute (MGI) examined the most important economic and social developments up to 2030 in the USA and ten European countries, including Germany, France, the Netherlands, Spain, the UK, Sweden, Italy, Denmark, the Czech Republic and Poland. In addition, more than 1,100 board members of companies in Germany, France, Italy, the UK and the USA were surveyed.

(olb)