Thanks to AI: Is the iPhone on the verge of a new "Super Cycle"?
Apple plans to roll out its new AI support from the fall. This could drive iPhone sales, as the manufacturer only supports certain models.
An iPhone 15 Pro.
(Image: Sebastian Trepesch)
The iPhone is referred to as a super cycle when major changes to hardware and software lead to users increasingly turning to new devices. In the past, this applied to Apple's entry into the 5G smartphone market, the introduction of Dynamic Island and – at least in part – the launch of USB-C iPhones. The analysis firm Wedbush now believes that this could be the case again with the iPhone 16 this fall. The reason is Apple Intelligence, the new software and hardware functions from the field of generative artificial intelligence that Apple wants to introduce.
Apple Intelligence only with iPhone 15 Pro, 15 Pro Max and 16
These are only available to a very limited extent on the iPhone. They will only run on the 15 Pro and 15 Pro Max models – plus (presumably) all iPhone 16 models. According to Apple, this is not for marketing reasons, but for purely technical reasons. For example, only the Neural Engine built into the A17 Pro is said to be able to handle the large local language models (LLMs) that Apple uses. In addition, a minimum main memory of 8 GB is apparently required, which is only used from the A17 Pro onwards. On the Mac (and the iPad), on the other hand, things look much better, with Apple Intelligence even supporting the M1, which was introduced in 2020.
According to Wedbush, demand for the iPhone 16 could become so high that it could also offset Apple's problems with iPhone sales in China. Apple is increasingly seen on Wall Street as a kind of gatekeeper for end customer AI systems. Instead of merely lagging competitors such as OpenAI, Meta or Google, the company could succeed in taking over the market leadership.
Hurdles with language, functions and in the EU
However, these are still investors' dreams. So far, Apple Intelligence cannot even be used by users of the current developer beta of iOS 18, and Apple is apparently even planning a waiting list for developers. What's more, the AI services will only be available in the US English language version this year, and functions such as the improved Siri will not be complete until next year (such as full access to what's on the screen). Finally, Apple has decided not to launch Apple Intelligence in the EU at this time due to regulatory disputes.
Wedbush nevertheless sees great opportunities for Apple. The financial house estimates that a total of 270 million iPhone users have not purchased a new device in the last four years. The analysts also expect the iPhone 16 to emerge from negative growth in China for the first time. The service business could grow by a further 10 billion US dollars per year, and Wedbush describes the "upside" for the share as between 30 and 40 dollars per share. The analysts' price target is 275 dollars. The share price currently stands at just under 209 dollars.
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