Blackout fear gets electricity law moving

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The amendment to the Energy Industry Act, which the government consisting of the SPD, Greens and Volker Wissing quickly pushed through the cabinet last Wednesday, comprises 452 pages. Due to the new Bundestag elections on February 23, 2025, the government decided: better to regulate quickly than not to regulate at all. Otherwise there could be a threat of regional blackouts.

Threat of regional blackouts in 2025?

The risk of regional blackouts is immanent, warn two major solar power installers, 1komma5grad and Enpal. If PV yields are high but consumption is low, even negative electricity prices would no longer be able to save the grids. As a result, distribution grid operators would have to shed entire grid segments. This could happen as early as Easter and Whitsun 2025, the companies warn.

The situation is not quite that dramatic yet, says Frank Borchardt from the Forum Netztechnik und Netzbetrieb (FNN) at the German Electrical and Electronic Manufacturers' Association (VDE). However, more and more non-regulatable power is being pushed into the grid. This would "perhaps not lead to a threat to grid stability in 2025, but 'at some point'," says Borchardt. This is because "there are no longer enough controllable systems available to balance out the small systems."

Flexibility should therefore now become more attractive: On the one hand, the feed-in tariff is to be scrapped if the electricity exchange price is negative. In addition, anyone who produces electricity should have to cap their feed-in to 50 percent of the maximum capacity in the event of negative prices – if a plant is commissioned after the law comes into force and cannot be controlled by the grid operator.

To prevent this, the rollout of control devices that can process signals from grid operators and report back their status would have to be accelerated. So far, however, they are lagging far behind the plans. The complexity has been underestimated, says Borchardt. Solar installations are currently being added faster than smart meters – 3.4 million PV installations, excluding balcony power plants, according to the Federal Statistical Office for April 2024. Nominal peak output: 81.5 gigawatts. By November, a further 300,000 PV systems larger than four modules had been added to the Federal Network Agency's market master data register. The 100 gigawatt photovoltaic threshold will therefore soon be broken.

Controllability also mandatory for systems from 2kW

According to the amendment, all new systems with a nominal feed-in capacity of over 2 kilowatts should therefore become "smart": Basic metering point operators (gMSB) are to be obliged to install control systems above this limit. So-called "mandatory installations" also apply if controllable consumers such as wallboxes and e-cars or storage units are installed and consumption exceeds 6,000 kWh per year.

However, there is a temporary loophole, primarily for small systems: "This obligation is already considered fulfilled if at least 90 percent of the newly installed capacity in the last two years has been made controllable," said a BMWK spokesperson in response to a request from heise online. This means that if the largest systems are already equipped with control technology, the rest can follow later. Experts believe this makes sense. "The stabilizing effect of the small systems for the distribution grid is questionable," says Frank Borchardt from FNN. The larger plants would be more important for system stability.

However, according to the current plans, the targets are also changing for existing systems: in 2028, 50 percent of the capacity installed since 2018 must be controllable – 2032 then 90 percent of the total capacity. The remaining percentages should continue to feed into the grid in a non-controllable manner if these quotas are met.

However, it remains unclear how this can actually be achieved: millions of meters and control units are involved. Previous targets were considered unattainable in industry circles – and the mandatory limit was still 7 kilowatts of feed-in power. By focusing on the controllable share, politicians are hoping for prioritization by the metering point operators. This would benefit the grid, as large consumers and producers in particular would become controllable. If there is a relevant, controllable consumer behind the grid connection, such as a heat pump or an e-car wallbox, the "smartization obligation" also applies.

Costs for metering equipment and smart meters are to be changed

But that costs money. "PV systems with an installed capacity of between two and seven kilowatts in particular should not be installed," says Henning Herbst, electricity market and renewable energies officer at the Federation of German Consumer Organizations (vzbv). The additional costs for the systems would make such installations noticeably less profitable. This is because the proposed changes would also result in changes to cost sharing.

Consumers would have to pay 25 and thus 5 euros more per year for "modern metering systems". Henning Herbst from vzbv criticizes this as "unjustified", as they would hardly have any additional benefit. Between 2 and 15 KW, 50 euros are to be paid annually for the "intelligent metering system" and 100 euros for the control system. In other words, 150 euros, which small operators and users would first have to earn.

There are also installation costs. Herbst therefore says: "The sharp increase in the cost of installing a smart meter at the customer's request makes access to dynamic tariffs, which allow consumers to benefit from low electricity prices on the exchange, more difficult." 100 euros can be charged if a user wants to be equipped earlier. "A one-off charge may only be levied if the system operator orders early equipment as an additional service subject to a charge," explains a spokesperson for the Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs.

New storage option also for smarter tariff use

The smart electricity tariffs should actually be made more attractive. From January, every provider must have a dynamic tariff in their portfolio. For many people, however, they only really make sense in combination with a storage system. These should also become more attractive for producers. In addition to single-variety green electricity storage and time-dependent switching between green and conventional grey electricity, the "flat-rate option" is to be introduced. Owners of PV systems with storage should also be allowed to temporarily store grey electricity without jeopardizing the EEG remuneration. For systems up to 30 kW, a maximum of 300 kWh per installed kilowatt of solar generation capacity could then be billed on a flat-rate basis.

However, it is difficult to predict what chances all these changes will actually have. It is not yet clear whether the CDU and CSU actually want to help the amendment as a whole or in part through the Bundestag. However, large sections of the energy industry are calling for its implementation – which could still help the law over the finishing line.

(dahe)