Review 2024: Year of change in retrospect

Contents

It seems as if there is a diffuse, deep longing for permanence in many societies. Anyone who promises it, even if it is constantly with a wrecking ball, has a good chance of gaining political responsibility. The world has become more complex and simple messages are in vogue. Concerns about climate change, for example, seem to be a luxury of times gone by that people can no longer afford. Many are too tired of the debates of recent years. But we should be worried, especially in this area. Local disasters, such as those that hit Spain and Austria this year, have also occurred in the past and quickly disappeared from the news. But their number is increasing.

Ein Kommentar von Martin Franz

Martin Franz ist der stellvertretende Chefredakteur von heise/Autos. Das berufliche Schrauben hat er hinter sich gelassen, um sich dem Thema Mobilität auf andere Art und Weise widmen zu können: beschreibend. Die Begeisterung für das Auto hat sich verändert, ohne abzunehmen.

Ignorance is not the solution

CO₂ emissions and average temperatures are rising globally, and in the private sector, transportation continues to be one of the biggest drivers of this development. Battery electric drives would offer the opportunity to make this sector at least slightly less harmful to the environment, with a promising outlook. However, in the largest market for new cars in the EU, electric cars went backwards in 2024, and significantly so. The cut in purchase support for commercial registrations by the German government, which is still in office, and then somewhat later quite suddenly for private car purchases, has left a deep mark on the sales figures for electric cars in this country. But I think it's a bad idea to pretend that combustion engines will simply continue unchanged. Waiting until everyone has understood that climate change is presenting Central Europe in particular with challenges of unprecedented proportions, including extreme weather and immigration from parts of the world that will no longer be habitable, is another drastically worse idea.

Strange images

In any case, some of the political players have left a strange impression over the past year. On the same day that an unpredictable racist and climate change denier regained power in the USA, it was quite a bold statement to denounce the federal government with a bang. Regardless of how one judges the question of who is primarily to blame for this, however, society may well be surprised at the vocabulary with which a liberal party apparently prepared this step. It would probably be a euphemism to call this merely strange. The fact that a CSU leader sinks to his knees in the same place more than 50  years after Willy Brandt's legendary genuflection in Warsaw says more about him than even this eloquent man possibly wanted to express.

There are certainly enough construction sites in this country that could be dealt with in a publicity-effective manner. The collapse of the Carola Bridge in Dresden is emblematic of an infrastructure that has been running on empty for years. Education and digitalization open up further fields for possible activities, and the list certainly does not even begin to be filled. At some point in the calculation, however, people here and there seem to have come to the conclusion that there is more media presence to be gained with #Söderisst, for example. It seems that the years of conditioning to shorten the attention span are beginning to pay off for these speakers. And yes, the media also have a big part to play in this. In the medium term, this is unlikely to be to the benefit of society, which I think the initiators have taken into account.

Recurring debates

The Conservatives received support from an unexpected quarter when it came to the planned removal of the de facto ban on combustion engines in new cars after 2034. The BSW's namesake spoke out in all seriousness in favor of the industry developing new economical combustion engines. Sahra Wagenknecht's usual skillful appearance simply left it open as to who should buy them. Low-consumption, small cars are often called for, but they have been bought less and less in recent years. Purchasing behavior, dominated by commercial registrations in Germany, points in the opposite direction. Consumption continues to be a secondary consideration when deciding on a particular model. Wagenknecht argues that Germany should not simply give up its lead in combustion engines. There may be one, but what will it be worth in the medium term?

In the car market as a whole, the turnaround in driving energy that is still being discussed in some parts of this country will be over in the medium term anyway. In China, there will ultimately be around 27 million new registrations in total in 2024, i.e. including all drive types, and not even half that figure in the EU as a whole. Electric cars are booming in China, and even though the Chinese government is promoting an openness to technology in the media, the foreseeable alternatives to battery electric drive systems play virtually no role. Overcapacity in the Chinese car industry is forcing exports to increase, which is worrying all those responsible in the EU and in the corporate sector. Is a tougher approach to tariffs a sustainable response to what could come there? Doubts are probably justified.

The crisis at VW

In 2024, the Volkswagen brand VW Passenger Cars was heading into troubled waters with its eyes wide open. A major cost-cutting package, adopted at the end of 2023 almost in the shadows, proved to be too tame, according to the Group's top management. They stepped into the limelight at the end of August with a harsh announcement: wage cuts and plant closures in Germany were no longer ruled out. The workforce interpreted this quite correctly as a declaration of war. After a tough struggle, an agreement was reached in the wage dispute shortly before Christmas. But this was probably no more than a temporary pause, which could prove to be a deceptive calm. VW is struggling with overcapacity, and it will not be possible to reduce it without pain.