Smartphone market has recovered in 2024, Chinese brands make gains

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After two years of contraction, the global market for new smartphones grew again in 2024. Pent-up demand has been reduced. While market leaders Samsung and Apple are losing share, Chinese providers are growing strongly. Market observers IDC and Counterpoint Research agree on this. However, their estimates differ in the details. IDC sees market growth of 6.4 percent to 1.24 billion units, Counterpoint an increase of four percent (without absolute figures in the public report).

While Counterpoint has seen Samsung as the market leader in smartphone shipments for years, IDC sees Apple as the market leader. However, the gap is in the per mille point range in each case. However, IDC had to revise its forecast from the fall. Even then, it was clear that the smartphone market would return to growth in 2024 thanks to Android. However, IDC believed that Apple could still achieve an increase in unit sales of four per thousand with a year-end sprint. IDC now says that Apple will have sold 232 million iPhones in 2024, nine per thousand fewer than in 2023. Counterpoint even estimates a decline of two percent.

For Samsung, Counterpoint sees an increase of one percent, while IDC predicts a decline of 1.4 percent to 223 million units. However, this does not mean that the smartphone business of both companies has necessarily shrunk. Both Counterpoint and IDC describe a general trend towards "premiumization", i.e. more expensive smartphones. Average sales prices have risen accordingly.

In China, significantly more than half of all iPhones delivered in the previous year were probably ultra-premium versions (Pro or Pro Max), Counterpoint reports. Other brands are also selling more devices at the equivalent of four-digit prices. Of course, this development is not driven by mountains of money hidden under mattresses, but is made possible by pumping. In less affluent countries, there are more and more loans for cell phones, while in more affluent countries, hidden financing through higher mobile phone tariffs is hip. There are also an increasing number of leasing tariffs where the customer has to return the cell phone in good condition after an agreed period of time. The network operator can then sell it a second time.

Chinese brands succeed

Number three on the global market is Xiaomi, which was able to push twelve percent more smartphones onto the market in 2024 according to Counterpoint. According to IDC, Xiaomi even grew by 15.4% to 169 million units. Oppo (105 million units) shares fourth place with either the Chinese manufacturer Transsion (IDC), which grew by 12.7%, or Vivo (+9% according to Counterpoint).

It is undisputed that Chinese brands won 2024, and especially of the strong Christmas quarter: "Xiaomi, Oppo, Vivo, Honor, Huawei, Lenovo, Realme, Transsion, TCL and ZTE have reached a historic milestone by collectively shipping the largest volume in a quarter and accounting for 56% of global smartphone shipments in the fourth quarter," reports IDC manager Francisco Jeronimo. "While their core markets remain China and (the rest of) Asia, these brands are expanding rapidly in Europe and Africa" thanks to their low and mid-range devices. With one exception: Huawei can focus on more expensive phones and establish its own operating system HarmonyOS. The company is so strongly positioned in China that it can now even afford to forego compatibility with Android apps for HarmonyOS.

Market shares 2024 according to IDC (number of units)

Marke	Marktanteil 2024	Veränderung ggü 2023
1. Apple	18,7 %	-1,4 %punkte
2. Samsung	18,0 %	-1,5 %punkte
3. Xiaomi	13,6 %	+1,1 %punkte
4. Transsion	8,6 %*	+0,4 %punkte
4. Oppo	8,5 %*	-0,4 %punkte
Sonstige	32,5 %	+1,7 %punkte

* IDC ranks providers equally if their gap in the estimate is only one point per thousand.

IDC expects further growth in 2025, but this is likely to be lower – not least due to the tariffs announced by Donald Trump.

Market shares 2024 according to Counterpoint Research (number of units)

Marke	Marktanteil 2024	Veränderung ggü 2023
1. Samsung	19 %	-1 %punkt
2. Apple	18 %	-1 %punkt
3. Xiaomi	14 %	+1 %punkt
4. Oppo	8 %	-1 %punkt
4. Vivo	8 %	unverändert
Sonstige	33 %	+2 %punkte

Counterpoint expects four percent more smartphones to be delivered in 2025. Thanks to further growth in average prices, sales are expected to increase twice as much.

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