Higher risk than ever before: newly discovered asteroid could hit Earth in 2032
A few days ago, an asteroid was discovered that will come dangerously close to Earth in eight years' time. The probability of impact is over one percent.
(Image: buradaki/Shutterstock.com)
Based on preliminary calculations, an asteroid discovered just a few days ago has made it to the top of two lists of the currently most dangerous celestial bodies. According to NASA data, there is a 1.2 percent probability that 2024 YR4 will hit the Earth in 2032. The ESA states that the asteroid will come within 0.0017 AU (around 255,000 kilometers) of us on 22 December 2032 – with an inaccuracy of 0.003 AU. Usually, more precise measurements later result in greater distances and the risk is reduced, but such high initial values as for 2024 YR4 have not been determined for a long time. However, the risk for Apophis was 2.7 percent 20 years ago, and an impact is now considered impossible.
Closer than it has been for decades
2024 YR4 was discovered on December 27 using a telescope in Chile. At the time, the asteroid, which is around 40 to 100 meters in size, had just completed its last close flyby of Earth, during which it came as close as 0.0055 AU (around 830,000 kilometers) on 25 December. That was about twice as far away as the moon. Between 1952 and 2097, it will only come closer to Earth in 2032. Nevertheless, NASA also points out that even the currently calculated impact probability of 1.2 percent would mean that there is an almost 99 percent probability that it will not do so. If it did, it would probably hit South America, the Atlantic, Central Africa, the Indian Ocean or South Asia.
Videos by heise
It happens occasionally that newly discovered asteroids make it to the top of the lists of the most dangerous celestial bodies based on the limited measurement data available. As soon as more precise orbital data is available, they usually slide down the list and the risk decreases. The last time this happened was at the beginning of 2022 with an asteroid called 2022 AE1. It is now no longer even in the ESA's top 100. The coming days and weeks will show whether 2024 YR4 will share this fate. Apart from that, the discovery shows once again that there are still dangerous asteroids lurking in the solar system, even if there are probably none left that can cause “considerable global destruction”.
An asteroid with a diameter of 10 meters hits the Earth about once every ten years, while impacts from 100-meter objects happen about once every 10,000 years. The former can cause some damage locally, such as the almost 20-meter asteroid that crashed over Chelyabinsk in 2013. The suspected Tunguska asteroid from 1908 was probably around twice as large. In total, we know of 37,000 near-Earth asteroids, i.e., asteroids that approach the Earth's orbit. Their cataloging has recently gained massive momentum. The search is intended to strengthen planetary defense and take account of the fact that asteroid impacts are among the few natural disasters that can be prevented by humans.
(mho)
