Potentially dangerous asteroid 2024 YRâ‚„: The risk is not (yet) decreasing
Near-Earth asteroid 2024 YRâ‚„ has now been observed hundreds of times, but an impact still cannot be ruled out. The first images are also available.
(Image: buradaki/Shutterstock.com)
Even days after extensive observation campaigns of the near-Earth asteroid 2024 YR4 were launched, the calculated risk of an impact in 2032 has not decreased. On the contrary, it has recently even increased slightly. NASA now states that there is a 1.4 percent probability that the celestial body will hit the Earth. After more than 300 observations, the ESA now states that the asteroid will pass the Earth at a distance of 0.0005 AU (around 75,000 kilometers) – with an inaccuracy of 0.0025 AU (around 370,000 kilometers). In this listing in particular, the risk has therefore increased, whereas it normally decreases rapidly with more observations.
Downgrading still likely
Last week, the NASA-coordinated International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN) also published an initial summary of the potential danger posed by 2024 YR4. Among other things, it states that the asteroid will still be detectable from Earth until around April. If the impact cannot be ruled out by then, we would have to wait until 2028 for clarity. Alternatively, space telescopes could observe it. The information sheet also states that a possible impact could occur shortly before Christmas 2032 in the Eastern Pacific, northern South America, the Atlantic, Central Africa, the Persian Gulf or South Asia.
Videos by heise
2024 YR4 was discovered on December 27 using a telescope in Chile. Follow-up observations then revealed that an impact of the asteroid on its next but one encounter with Earth cannot be ruled out. For this reason, the asteroid has been at the top of two lists of the most dangerous celestial bodies at the moment. On the so-called Turin Scale for classifying the danger posed by asteroids, it remains at class 3, which means, among other things, that the celestial body not only deserves the attention of astronomers, but also of the public and officials. At the same time, a downgrading remains the most likely scenario.
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(Image:Â IAWN)
There are now more and more images of the asteroid, including from the Very Large Telescope of the European Southern Observatory ESO. Another video comes from the US space agency NASA. A graphic from the IAWN clearly shows how widely scattered the distance determined for the 2032 encounter is. 2024 YR4 has a diameter of 40 to 90 meters, so an impact could cause severe damage locally or regionally. According to an analysis of historical data, asteroids from a size of 18 meters can cause casualties in the event of an impact, and from 56 meters they leave craters on the surface.
(mho)
