Technology assessor: working from home is here to stay

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During the coronavirus pandemic, working from home was mandatory in Germany and many other countries. Many employers are now pushing for their employees to be more present in the office again, including in the tech sector. For example, the management of US computer giant Dell recently called employees back to the office on company premises for five days a week. But despite the current "back to office" movement, researchers from the Office of Technology Assessment at the German Bundestag (TAB) are convinced that working from home is here to stay.

Focus on IT and services

In their study, the scientists shed light on the spread, acceptance, development prospects and consequences of hybrid forms of work in Germany. According to the study, working from home is still relevant after coronavirus and is expected to become more established or even expand in various sectors. According to the analysis, location-flexible working is currently particularly widespread in the service sector.

More than 70 percent of employees in the IT services, management consultancy and administration and management of companies will be working from home at least occasionally in 2023. It is striking that the proportion of hybrid working in the areas of research and development as well as education and teaching has declined. According to the study, it is also consistent that working from home is hardly used in the healthcare and social services sector, in retail and in the construction and finishing trades.

Potential not fully exploited

As part of the study, the researchers conducted a so-called Delphi survey. This is a systematic, multi-stage process with feedback via expert interviews in order to assess trends as accurately as possible. A large majority of the experts involved believe that the potential of hybrid forms of work has not yet been exhausted across all sectors. 64% believe that working from home will become even more widespread. Only 4 percent expect a widespread return to mandatory presence. 33% believe that the potential for widespread use will be exhausted by 2030 at the latest, while 29% expect the saturation point to be reached by 2035.

According to all respondents, digital collaboration platforms in particular will make a substantial contribution to the spread of hybrid work in the coming years. 52% assume that applications based on artificial intelligence (AI) will be able to make an important contribution to the organization of everyday life in the home office by 2030. According to 32% of experts, mixed and virtual reality technologies could help to make mobile working possible on a larger scale by 2030. A further 39% do not expect this to happen until 2035, while the experts do not expect robot systems to make a significant contribution until the following years.

Positive and negative effects

The majority of employees have a positive attitude towards hybrid work, according to the researchers. The improved work-life balance, the reduction in commuting times and more self-determination in terms of time are therefore very popular. Employers "were able to overcome initial skepticism towards working from home through positive experiences", the TAB continues. In some areas, however, great importance is still or once again being placed on presence at the workplace.

Another finding: hybrid work can negatively impact physical and mental health. The authors cite ergonomic problems and increased productivity pressure, among other things. This is offset by the aforementioned positive effects. Operational adjustments in work organization and personnel management are crucial. In 2022, the German government pointed out that employees with the option of working from home are less likely to fall ill.

According to the researchers, the increasing spread of hybrid working models is changing the organization and culture of work. Communication could become more difficult and the need for targeted knowledge and skills sharing and the use of digital collaboration tools could increase. Hybrid forms of work also have a fundamental impact on the cost structure of companies, as they lead to long-term savings in office space. In the short term, however, they require investment, particularly in digital technologies.

(olb)