Potentially dangerous asteroid 2024 YRâ‚„: The risk continues to rise very slowly
When near-Earth asteroids are discovered that could be dangerous to Earth, the risk can usually be quickly ruled out. Now things are different.
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Even after more than 330 observations, it still cannot be ruled out that the asteroid 2024 YR4 will collide with the Earth in 2032; on the contrary, the probability of this happening is slowly increasing. According to NASA, this is currently 1.9 percent. However, this still means that the celestial body will miss the Earth with a 98.1 percent probability. Meanwhile, the ESA has determined that the asteroid will pass the Earth on 22 December 2032 at a distance of almost 136,000 kilometers – with an inaccuracy of 311,000 kilometers.
No proposals for countermeasures yet
On the so-called Turin Scale for classifying the danger posed by asteroids, it remains at class 3. This means that it is not only currently considered the most dangerous, but only one asteroid has reached a higher class in the past: (99942) Apophis reached class 4 shortly after its discovery at the end of 2004, but is now no longer considered dangerous. Until 2024 YR4, no asteroid has reached class 3 since then. This also means that the asteroid is not only of interest to astronomers, but also deserves attention from the public and official bodies.
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Because of the potential risk posed by 2024 YR4, two organizations recognized by the United Nations have also begun their work. In addition to the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN) coordinated by NASA, this is the Space Mission Planning Advisory Group (SPMAG) at ESA. This group discussed the celestial body at a meeting this week and decided that it should continue to be observed and investigated. Possible countermeasures are already being discussed, but it is still too early for concrete proposals. If an impact in 2032 still cannot be completely ruled out at the beginning of May, this assessment will be reviewed.
2024 YR4 was discovered on December 27 using a telescope in Chile. Follow-up observations then revealed that an impact of the asteroid cannot be ruled out when it encounters the Earth the day after next. This is why the asteroid has been at the top of ESA and NASA's lists of the most dangerous celestial bodies for days. Even if nothing has changed recently and the risk is slowly increasing, a downgrading of the danger remains the most likely scenario. This means that with an increasing number of observations of the asteroid, the risk is likely to decrease at some point. This has always been the case with such objects.
(mho)
