Potentially dangerous asteroid 2024 YRâ‚„: space company OHB examines defense plan
In 2032, YRâ‚„ could hit the earth in 2024, before it passes by here again. That would be the best time for a defense mission, according to OHB.
(Image: buradaki/Shutterstock.com)
While the calculated probability that the asteroid 2024 YR4 will collide with Earth in 2032 has increased once again, OHB has started to work on a possible defense mission. The German space company has now announced this and added that the best launch opportunity for such a mission is as early as 2028. OHB already has experience with asteroid missions; the Group built the Hera probe for ESA and is working on the Ramses mission. The company does not provide details about a possible defense mission against 2024 YR4 and instead also points out that the probability of impact will probably soon be 0 again.
Concept for planetary defense tested
The 40 to 90-metre asteroid was discovered at the end of December, and further observations have shown that a collision with Earth cannot be ruled out on the next but one encounter. This is why the asteroid has been at the top of ESA and NASA's lists of the most dangerous celestial bodies for days. After almost 400 observations of the celestial body, NASA has calculated an impact probability of 2.6 percent, while ESA's figure is 2.4 percent. This still means that the probability of it missing the Earth is over 97 percent. Nevertheless, the impact risk is one of the highest ever calculated for a rock of significant size.
It is not clear from the press release what exactly is being tested at OHB, but the references to previous missions provide a clue. For example, OHB built the ESA probe Hera, which is currently on its way to the asteroid moon Dimorphos. The NASA probe Dart (Double Asteroid Redirection Test) crashed into it on September 27, 2022 to test a concept for asteroid defense. This deliberately changed the orbit of the celestial body, just as could be done before a possible impact with Earth. If this can be done early enough, an asteroid like 2024 YR4, which is dangerous for Earth, could be deflected strongly enough to miss our home planet.
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Waiting for better measurement data
On the so-called Turin Scale for classifying the danger posed by asteroids, 2024 YR4 remains unchanged at class 3. This means that it is not only currently considered the most dangerous, but only one asteroid has reached a higher class in the past: "(99942) Apophis" reached class 4 shortly after its discovery at the end of 2004, but is now no longer considered dangerous. No other asteroid has reached class 3 until 2024 YR4. This also means that the near-Earth asteroid is not only of interest to astronomers, but also deserves attention from the public and official bodies. In the event of an impact, it could cause major destruction locally or regionally, depending on how large it actually is.
Because of the potential risk posed by 2024 YR4, two organizations recognized by the United Nations have already begun their work. In addition to the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN) coordinated by NASA, this is the Space Mission Planning Advisory Group (SPMAG) at ESA. This group discussed the celestial body at a meeting and decided that it should continue to be observed and investigated. Possible countermeasures are already being discussed, but it is still too early for concrete proposals. The James Webb space telescope will soon provide particularly precise data on the size and orbit of the celestial body.
(mho)
