Danger averted: Impact of asteroid 2024 YRâ‚„ now almost ruled out
Thanks to new observations, an impact of the asteroid 2024 YRâ‚„ in 2032 is now almost ruled out. Further observations should provide complete clarity.
(Image: buradaki/Shutterstock.com)
Following further observations, the probability of the near-Earth asteroid 2024 YR4 hitting the Earth in seven years' time has been revised downwards significantly. While NASA still calculates an impact probability of 0.27 percent, ESA now only estimates a probability of 0.14 percent. At the same time, the asteroid has been downgraded from class 3 to class 1 on the so-called Turin Scale for classifying asteroid hazards, meaning it is no longer considered unusually dangerous. In the coming days at the latest, it should then be conclusively confirmed that the celestial body will pass within the orbit of the moon in 2032, but still at a safe distance from the Earth.
Records broken in the meantime
2024 YR4 was discovered on December 27, shortly after its most recent rendezvous with Earth. Follow-up observations then revealed that an impact of the 40 to 90 meter asteroid cannot be ruled out during its next but one encounter. For several weeks, and for an unusually long time, the asteroid was therefore at the top of ESA and NASA's lists of the most dangerous celestial bodies. For a time, the probability of impact was also given as higher than the previous peak value for a comparatively large asteroid. In addition, the probability was above one percent for longer than for any comparable object before. But that is now over.
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After further observations in the coming days, the calculated impact probability should then fall to 0. The scheduled observations with the James Webb space telescope will probably no longer be necessary. This should focus on it at the beginning of March and the end of May, after which it will no longer be observable for years. In addition to the exact orbit, they also wanted to find out the precise size. If the asteroid had actually been on a collision course with the Earth, the extent of possible damage would have differed significantly depending on its size.
Because an impact on Earth could not be completely ruled out for weeks, two organizations recognized by the United Nations also began their work. In addition to the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN) coordinated by NASA, this is the Space Mission Planning Advisory Group (SPMAG) at ESA. This group discussed the celestial body at a meeting and decided that it should be further observed and investigated. Just a few days ago, the German space company OHB also made it public that possible defensive measures were being examined. This is no longer necessary.
(mho)
