No longer a "significant" danger: asteroid 2024 YRâ‚„ could hit the moon in 2032
The Earth will miss YRâ‚„ in seven years in 2024, that is now considered certain. But a collision with the moon cannot yet be completely ruled out.
(Image: NicoElNino/Shutterstock.com)
The near-Earth asteroid 2024 YR4 will not collide with the Earth in seven years or during another flyby in the coming years, but there is still a small chance that it will hit the moon in 2032. This is the result of the latest observations. The probability of an impact on Earth before Christmas Eve 2032 is now 0.0017 percent, while the ESA puts the probability at 0.0013 percent. However, the moon will still be hit with a probability of 1.7 percent. The asteroid has been downgraded to class 0 on the Turin Scale for classifying danger. In addition, the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN) has already published a final report.
(Image:Â NASA/JPL Center for Near-Earth Object Studies)
It became clear last week that an impact of 2024 YR4 can now almost be ruled out. After the calculated impact probability had temporarily risen to over 3%, it was reduced significantly at the end of the week. This had been expected throughout the past few weeks, but it took an unusually long time to get to this point. Should an impact on the moon now become more likely, this would also increase the chance of a very special celestial spectacle in seven years' time. At present, however, it still looks as though this can soon be ruled out.
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2024 YR4 was discovered on December 27 shortly after its most recent rendezvous with Earth. Follow-up observations then revealed that an impact of the 40 to 90 meter asteroid cannot be ruled out during its next but one encounter. For several weeks, and thus for an unusually long time, the asteroid was therefore at the top of ESA and NASA's lists of the most dangerous celestial bodies at the time, and is now also well down the list. Overall, the calculated probability of an impact on Earth for 2024 YR4 was above one percent for longer than for any comparable object before.
As NASA now assures us, the asteroid will continue to be observed and the measurements with the James Webb Space Telescope have not been canceled. Among other things, the instrument is to find out how large the celestial body actually is, but the information is still extremely imprecise. The asteroid presented an invaluable opportunity to test the science and reporting procedures for so-called planetary defense, NASA explains. Asteroid impacts are one of the few natural disasters that humanity could prevent, and the procedures are designed to help in the event of an impact.
(mho)
