COâ‚‚ shrinks the atmosphere: orbit will be able to accommodate fewer satellites
We knew the Earth's atmosphere was shrinking due to climate change. Now, we have determined how many satellites will fit into low Earth orbit in 2100.
The ISS is traveling in an orbit that is becoming increasingly crowded.
(Image: NASA)
Due to greenhouse gas emissions, the area of the Earth's orbit that is most popular with satellite operators will be able to accommodate less than half as many objects in 2100 as it does today. This has been determined by a research team, quantifying the consequences of an already known development. Certain levels in Earth's orbit are already overcrowded, mainly due to the Starlink internet satellites. By the end of the century, however, low Earth orbit (LEO) could accommodate 50 to 66 percent fewer satellites than today without the risk of devastating collisions becoming too great. So far, there are no measures in place to prepare space travel for this.
Increasing danger from space debris
It was already known that the Earth's atmosphere is contracting as a result of man-made climate change, which will have noticeable consequences for the operation of satellites. Since the year 2000, the density of the foothills of the atmosphere at an altitude of 400 kilometers has already decreased noticeably, which is why satellites are slowed down less strongly there. This means that their lifetime increases and the amount of dangerous space debris increases. The more crowded it becomes, the greater the danger that a collision will set off an unstoppable chain reaction that could empty entire orbits.
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Using simulations, the team led by William Parker from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology has now determined the capacity for satellites in low Earth orbit, writes MIT. This is where the International Space Station (ISS) orbits. The result is that the total capacity will decrease by up to two thirds over the next 75 years as a result of greenhouse gas emissions. If we do not reduce harmful emissions or prepare for the changes in orbit, it could become too crowded, warns Parker, because “the sky is literally falling” at a rate that could be measured in decades.
More satellites have been launched in the past five years than in the 60 years before that, the team explains. This is mainly due to SpaceX's Starlink; the mega-constellation now consists of more than 7,000 satellites. However, we are “dependent on the atmosphere to clean up our space junk”, writes Parker. If we change it, it will no longer work. With this in mind, we need to find out whether the path we are on is sustainable. The simulations have also clarified that there is not enough space in Earth's orbit for all the constellations that are currently being planned. The research has been published in the journal Nature Sustainability.
(mho)
