"We're keeping our fingers crossed": Asteroid 2024 YRâ‚„ could still hit the moon
The asteroid 2024 YRâ‚„ is no longer a threat to Earth, but the moon is not yet safe. Even observations from space have not changed this.
(Image: buradaki/Shutterstock.com)
The near-Earth asteroid 2024 YR4 has a diameter of around 60 meters and could hit the moon on its closest approach to Earth in 2032. This is the result of the first observations with the James Webb Space Telescope, according to the NASA-coordinated International Asteroid Warning Network. The inaccuracy in the diameter determined is therefore only seven meters, the probability that the asteroid has an effective diameter of more than 50 meters is 92 percent. From this size, the ESA's Space Mission Planning Advisory Group (SPMAG) would have to become active. However, an impact on Earth is ruled out. The situation is different for the moon.
The preliminary report also states that the probability of an impact on the moon on December 22, 2032, is greater than zero. The New Scientist has obtained more specific information, according to which the probability of an impact on the Earth's satellite is currently around two percent. This means that it is still much more likely that this will not happen. For such a collision to be visible from Earth, however, it would also have to happen on the right side and in a region visible from Earth. “We're keeping our fingers crossed,” the science magazine quotes astronomer Alan Fitzsimmons. Should all the circumstances fall into place, it would be a unique opportunity for research.
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2024 YR was discovered on December 27, shortly after its recent rendezvous with Earth. Follow-up observations then revealed that an impact of the asteroid during its next but one encounter could not be ruled out. For several weeks, and for an unusually long time, the asteroid was therefore at the top of ESA and NASA's lists of the most dangerous celestial bodies. It was not until the end of February that the observation data showed that there was no danger to Earth. The probability of an impact is currently 0.000019 percent. Meanwhile, it has been above one percent for longer than for any comparable object before.
(mho)
