US tariffs: Global PC sales increase

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Global PC shipments rose by 6.7% to 61.4 million devices in the first quarter of this year compared to the same period last year. This is according to preliminary data published by the global technology market research company Counterpoint Research on Tuesday.

According to Counterpoint, the growth was mainly driven by PC manufacturers accelerating shipments ahead of the expected US tariffs, as well as the increasing adoption of AI-enabled PCs amid the end of support for Windows 10. A few months ago, it sounded different. The end of Windows 10 and AI will not boost PC sales, was the assessment in January when looking back to 2024. However, the increase in the first quarter could only be short-lived, Counterpoint suspects. The company expects the impact of US tariffs to dampen growth momentum in the PC market in 2025.

Apple and Lenovo stand out

Apple and Lenovo were largely responsible for the almost 7 percent increase in PC sales in the first quarter. The US company Apple recorded a 17% increase in shipments compared to the previous year, driven by its AI-enabled MacBook series with M4 processor. PC deliveries from Chinese manufacturer Lenovo increased by eleven percent. According to Counterpoint, this reflects the diversification of Lenovo's product range and its expansion into AI-enabled PCs. Lenovo remained the brand with the largest market share in the first quarter of this year with 25 percent, followed by the US manufacturers Hewlett-Packard (HP) and Dell. The latter generated year-on-year growth of six and four percent respectively, benefiting primarily from gains in the US market. According to Counterpoint, this also applies to other major brands, which were also able to further consolidate their market shares in the face of growing customs uncertainty.

“Going forward, competitive dynamics will be shaped by manufacturers' ability to diversify their supply chains and production bases and position themselves to offer the best AI PC experiences by entering into key ecosystem partnerships, from silicon to software to model providers,” estimates Counterpoint analyst William Li.

Tariff risks and other challenges

In light of the US government Donald Trump's trade war against China and the associated tariff risks, the PC industry is facing significant challenges, according to Counterpoint. Not least because the main focus of global PC production is still in China. The US tariff policy has unsettled the PC industry. Manufacturers are confronted with rising costs and a possible decline in supply and demand.

It is true that Washington has issued temporary tariff exemptions for certain electronic consumer goods, including laptops and smartphones, thus providing temporary relief. But the uncertainty remains. The expected US tariffs on semiconductors and other technology products “threaten (…) to disrupt supply chains and dampen demand and investment in AI infrastructure and devices”, according to the report.

Rather bleak prospects

The market researchers therefore assume that laptop manufacturers will continue to push ahead with the relocation of production from China to other countries such as Vietnam, India and Mexico, even though these countries also face varying levels of US tariffs. The top priority for PC suppliers will be to “shift the production of all products destined for the US market to production lines outside China”, according to the assessment.

The outlook is therefore anything but rosy. “High tariffs or tariff policy uncertainty will likely discourage consumers or businesses from purchasing new devices at additional cost, which in turn will slow growth and an increase in penetration,” said Counterpoint Deputy Director, David Naranjo. “Continued global economic uncertainty will also pose a downside risk to our forecast of mid-single digit growth in the PC market in 2025.”

(akn)