Probably won't burn up completely: Soviet Venus probe about to crash to earth
More than 50 years ago, a Soviet mission to Venus failed, and now the capsule will crash uncontrollably to Earth and probably not burn up.
(Image: NicoElNino/Shutterstock.com)
In a few days, a failed Venus probe from the Soviet Union is expected to crash uncontrollably into the Earth. Because it should survive the extreme atmosphere of the second planet, it is likely that it will reach the ground. Dutch satellite expert Marco Langbroek drew attention to this a few days ago, and this prediction is now shared by other experts. It is currently expected that the object will crash on May 10, but the inaccuracy is still 57 hours – in both directions. It could therefore still hit any location between the 52nd parallel and therefore, in principle, any location south of Berlin in Germany, Austria and Switzerland. However, the risk is minimal.
Object likely to survive fall through the atmosphere
The crashing object is a failed space probe from the Soviet Union's Venera program for the exploration of Venus. Kosmos 482 was launched on March 31, 1972, four days after its sister probe Venera 8, but while Venera 8 reached Venus, landed there and sent data to Earth, Kosmos 482 never left Earth's orbit due to a problem with the carrier rocket. Since then, the payload has been orbiting there after being separated from the rocket. Satellite expert Jonathan McDowell predicted in March 2019 that a crash could occur in the early 2020s, and now the time has apparently come.
Videos by heise
McDowell still writes that he is "moderately confident, but not 100 percent certain" that the object is the capsule that was supposed to touch down on Venus. It therefore cannot be ruled out that it is the rocket used at the time. Langbroek, on the other hand, is convinced that it is the Venus capsule. With a heat shield made of titanium, it was built to survive the flight through the extremely dense atmosphere there. It should therefore also survive the crash through the Earth's atmosphere and reach the surface. However, there is no radioactive material on board, so there is only a risk for the area directly hit, which is probably in the ocean.
Because nobody has control over the probe, the crash is uncontrolled, so in principle it can come down almost anywhere on Earth. However, because the Earth is largely covered by the sea, a fall into the water is the most likely scenario. Such uncontrolled crashes occur time and again; just a year ago, a discarded large battery pallet from the International Space Station (ISS) crashed to earth, and a fragment damaged a house in the US state of Florida. The Federal Office of Civil Protection and Disaster Assistance (BBK), among others, had warned in advance that a fall on Germany could not be ruled out. The office has not yet commented on Cosmos 482.
(mho)
