Impact on Saturday morning: forecast for Venus probe crash clarified
On Saturday, a failed Venus probe will crash uncontrollably and probably not burn up thanks to a heat shield. It is still unclear where it will come down.
This is what the Venus probe probably looked like before its launch
(Image: Rave, CC BY-SA 3.0)
The failed Soviet Venus probe Kosmos 482 will probably crash into the Earth early Saturday morning, but it is still unclear exactly where. This is according to various forecasts by the European Space Agency ESA, the European Space Surveillance EU SST and the Aerospace Corporation, among others. What the forecasts have in common are immense uncertainties of around 10 hours in both time axes. This means that a crash over Germany and other European countries is still possible, although Switzerland and Austria will certainly be spared, according to the EU SST. Researchers at the TU Braunschweig, for example, expect a purely ballistic entry of the probe "with subsequent impact on the Earth's surface".
Kosmos 482 is the central part of a Soviet Venus probe that was launched on March 31, 1972 with the destination Venus. However, due to a problem with the carrier rocket, it never left Earth's orbit and slowly sank in its orbit. The Dutch satellite expert Marco Langbroek first drew attention to the fact that the crash was imminent, and the object is now being observed extensively. As there has been no connection to the probe for decades, it will crash in an uncontrolled manner. Due to its high speed, it will only become clear exactly where shortly beforehand. Because the Earth is largely covered by water, a crash over an ocean is the most likely scenario.
Videos by heise
As a research group at TU Braunschweig has compiled, the capsule has a mass of 495 kilograms and a diameter of around one meter. For the planned landing on Venus, it was fitted with a heat shield, which should ensure that it survives the crash through the Earth's atmosphere. However, it is not known how badly this protective shield has been damaged by aging processes over the past 50 years. Originally, the probe also had a parachute, but it is not expected to open and seriously influence the trajectory of the crashing object.
Uncontrolled crashes like that of Kosmos 482 constantly happen, but the expectation that the object could reach the Earth's surface relatively intact is unusual. Langbroek has calculated that it would hit the surface at a speed of around 242 km/h. Should the object actually break up, however, this would also reduce the risk because only one piece would hit and not several, as was the case recently after the break-up of a SpaceX Starship. Langbroek has also already pointed out that there is no radioactive material on board. There is therefore only a risk for the area directly hit – which is most likely not safely located in the ocean.
(mho)
