Model should be able to predict hot summers in Europe three years in advance
Based on the warming of the North Atlantic, hot summers in Europe can be predicted up to three years in advance. This year would be no exception.
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A research team at the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology has developed a model that can predict up to three years in advance whether Europe is at risk of a heatwave summer. The research institute has now made this public and explained that the simulation is based on a heat build-up in the North Atlantic, which can help to predict such a heat extreme. A review of the model using historical data confirmed the higher accuracy. At the same time, however, a number of hot summers were not recognized in advance. However, the model can also be checked separately in the coming weeks, as it is forecasting just such a hot summer again this summer.
Forecast directly verifiable
A team led by Lara Wallberg from the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology has already proven in an earlier study that heat accumulation in the North Atlantic often precedes hot summers in Europe, explains the research institute. However, the finding only has a direct practical benefit if it can be used for forecasting. This is exactly what the researcher has now tested and found that this is indeed possible. The heat content of the North Atlantic can therefore be used to predict such an extreme weather event up to three years in advance. Based on the latest data, the upcoming summer should be just such an event, the team continues.
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The group tested their model using observational data from 1964 to 2021, during which time Europe experienced 18 warmer-than-average summers. Ten of these, the respective number of hot summer days and the extent of the heat reached in each case, were predicted more accurately by their model than the average of all runs. Although it does not promise absolute certainty, it does provide a much more accurate forecast. Wallberg's next step is to determine whether the extreme summers of 2003, 2018 and 2022 could have been predicted three years in advance. At the same time, she is already researching how to make the forecasts useful for agriculture. The current work is currently being presented in Geophysical Research Letters.
(mho)
