Impact of asteroid 2024 YRâ‚„ on the moon once again slightly more likely
The asteroid 2024 YRâ‚„ is unreachable of our instruments for now. According to the latest observation, an impact on the moon is somewhat more likely.
(Image: Elena11/Shutterstock)
NASA has once again slightly revised upwards the probability that the near-Earth asteroid 2024 YR4 will hit the moon in seven years' time. This was based on the last data collected by the James Webb space telescope before the celestial body disappeared from the range of all our instruments. The probability of a collision is now 4.3 percent (previously it was 3.8 percent). An impact is therefore still virtually ruled out, but not completely. Should it actually happen, NASA assures us that it would not change the moon's orbit. Our knowledge of the asteroid's orbit has improved by 20 percent based on the data, it says.
The probability of a moon impact is slowly increasing
2024 YR4 caused a stir for weeks at the beginning of the year after the asteroid was discovered on December 27, shortly after its most recent rendezvous with Earth. Follow-up observations then revealed that an impact of the asteroid during its next but one rendezvous with our home planet could not be ruled out. For several weeks, and for an unusually long time, the asteroid was therefore at the top of ESA and NASA's lists of the most dangerous celestial bodies. It was not until the end of February that the observation data revealed that Earth was not in any danger from the approximately 60-meter celestial body.
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After a danger to the Earth could be ruled out, the focus shifted to the fact that the asteroid could still hit the moon. Even then, however, it is still much more likely that both objects will miss each other. However, as long as the asteroid can no longer be observed directly, this cannot be determined with certainty. Even if 2024 YR4 should actually hit the moon in 2032, this does not mean that the spectacle could be observed from Earth. For that to happen, it would have to be on the right side. Researchers are already keeping their fingers crossed, as such an impact with such a long lead time would be a unique opportunity for science.
(mho)
