Study: Warning of lithium supply bottlenecks in Europe, China and the USA

Researchers from China, Sweden and Norway are warning of possible bottlenecks in the supply of lithium in Europe, China and the USA – three major markets for electromobility. Despite planned increases in production between 2025 and 2030, capacities may not be sufficient, according to the study "Long on expectations, short on supply: Regional lithium imbalances and the effects of trade allocations by China, the EU, and the USA", which was published today (Thursday) in the specialist journal "Cell Reports Sustainability".

Europe and the USA dependent on imports

The analysis of 16 scenarios for the production and demand of lithium and its intermediate products shows that Europe and the USA in particular remain dependent on imports. According to Xia Q et al., only China could largely cover its own demand with smaller battery capacities. Experts emphasize that the value chain is more complex than modeled in the study and recommend using lithium more efficiently, for example through smaller batteries or more shared mobility offers.

To estimate production, information on mining projects was collected from press releases, feasibility studies and statistics and used to create various scenarios for the production of lithium. To estimate future demand, two scenarios from the International Energy Agency (IEA) on the sales figures for electric vehicles were combined with four different assumptions on battery capacity.

Prof. Dr. Christoph Helbig, Professor of Ecological Resource Technology at the University of Bayreuth, criticizes the study's authors for focusing "exclusively on the trade in lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide, two intermediate products". "The modeling approach pursued by the authors is limited to the production and trade of lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide. Although the authors mention the trade flow of lithium rock from Australia to China for further processing, which is significant for global supply, they do not evaluate it quantitatively. This means that an essential component of the global lithium supply chain is missing in the modeled scenarios and the results of this technical paper should therefore not be overinterpreted", says Helbig.

"The authors of the study design scenarios for the demand and production of lithium based on internationally recognized forecasts and the announcements of the producers. [...] However, the range of scenarios considered covers several possible developments and therefore appears to be quite robust. The core result of the study of rising lithium demand and an unclear supply situation should therefore be taken seriously," says Dr. Christoph Neef, research associate at the Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research, when asked by the Science Media Center. He also points out that alternative technologies such as sodium-ion batteries will not provide any relief until 2030, particularly in the electric vehicle market.

Neef also criticizes the fact that the value and supply chain in the study is "strongly reduced to the placing of vehicles on the market, i.e. the demand, and the extraction of lithium, i.e. the supply". However, "a large number of the batteries placed on the market in Europe already come from Asia, but the lithium they contain comes from Australia or South America. Is there therefore a lithium supply shortage in Europe? Apparently not, as this is not least the responsibility of the suppliers in the materials' industry, most of whom are based in China or South Korea. Nevertheless, he admits that Europe, the USA and parts of China are dependent on raw materials from other countries. According to Neef, the lithium shortage first affects markets where customers are less solvent. "Experience has shown that this is not the case in Europe or the USA and has little to do with our own production capacities for raw materials," says Neef. The company's own raw material production only plays a subordinate role.

(mack)