"Like an atomic bomb explosion": warning of possible asteroid impact on the moon
The asteroid 2024 YRâ‚„ is no longer a direct threat to us, but it could still hit the moon. Researchers have determined what this would mean for the Earth.
(Image: Dima Zel/Shutterstock.com)
In the unlikely event that the asteroid 2024 YR4 hits the moon in seven years' time, the material hurled into space would endanger satellites orbiting the Earth and cause impressive meteor showers on Earth itself. This has been determined by Canadian researchers who have modeled the impact, which still cannot be ruled out. If it were to actually occur on 22 December 2032, it would release 6.5 megatons (TNT equivalent) of energy and create a crater with a diameter of around one kilometer, they write. About 100,000 tons of lunar material would be hurled into space, and 10 percent of it would reach Earth within days.
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Such a large impact only occurs on the moon every 5,000 years or so, the group adds. Research leader Paul Wiegert from the University of Western Ontario explained to the AFP news agency that the collision would be comparable to a large atomic bomb explosion in terms of the energy released. Parts of the material hurled into space would create numerous meteorites on Earth, but these would fall through the Earth's atmosphere comparatively slowly. Nevertheless, they predict a “real eye-catcher”. Other rocks, on the other hand, would enter orbit and pose a danger to satellites. A YouTube video shows the consequences of several simulated impacts.
The Earth is safe, the moon is not yet
The study on the possible consequences of an impact of 2024 YR4,which has not yet been independently verified, is now being carried out against the background that people will not know for years how likely it is. NASA last stated two weeks ago that the probability of a collision is now 4.3 percent. This was determined with the help of the James Webb Space Telescope; the asteroid is currently beyond the range of all our instruments. This means that an impact of the approximately 60-metre celestial body on the moon during its next, but one flyby of the Earth cannot be completely ruled out, but it is still extremely unlikely.
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2024 YR4 caused a stir for weeks at the beginning of the year after the near-Earth asteroid was discovered on December 27 shortly after its most recent rendezvous with Earth. Follow-up observations then initially revealed that an impact of the asteroid on Earth in 2032 could not be ruled out. For several weeks, the asteroid was at the top of ESA and NASA's lists of the most dangerous celestial bodies at the time. It was not until the end of February that it was determined that there was no danger to Earth. However, it could still hit the moon, which would possibly be visible from Earth. We will probably only know for sure when it comes within range of our telescopes again in 2028.
(mho)
