Starlink: First figures on the – surprisingly low – capacity limit
In the USA, there are discussions about using Starlink for broadband expansion. A new analysis raises doubts as to how sensible this is.
(Image: Starlink)
If only every twentieth antenna in an area uploads files via Starlink at the same time, only 6.7 antennas per square mile can achieve speeds of at least 20 Mbps. That is 2.6 per square kilometer. In order for every twentieth household to achieve downloads of at least 100 Mbit/s at the same time, only 19 antennas can be operated per square mile, i.e. around 7.4 per square kilometer. This is the result of an analysis carried out by US network expert Sascha Meinrath and a team from his organization The X-Lab, which was first reported on by the Washington Post.
This shows that the service continues to work best the fewer people use it in an area. The results now call into question whether it really makes sense for the US government to rely on Starlink for its extensive broadband expansion. It also shows that anyone who is satisfied with a Starlink connection should not encourage their neighbors to get an antenna as well.
Surprisingly low capacity limit
Meinrath's team had to make a number of assumptions for the analysis because "the full technical specifications of Starlink are not publicly available". For this reason, the group does not advocate making decisions based on their work, but rather carrying out comprehensive capacity analyses before investing large sums of state money in the service. Based on the available data, the team has calculated the number of antennas on the ground at which the capacity limit is reached. This is therefore surprisingly early.
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The fact that Starlink suffers when many people in a certain area use the service is nothing new. As early as 2022, the US company Ookla, known for its speed tests, determined that Starlink download speeds had dropped significantly. Even then, the increasing spread of the service was blamed for this. With Starlink, small antennas for domestic use are connected via internet satellites. Although there are thousands of them, only one of them is responsible for the connections in any given geographical region. Meinrath's team now wanted to find out what capacities the system actually has.
Elon Musk's SpaceX has been building Starlink since 2019, and almost 8,000 active satellites now provide fast internet connections on all continents. In future, 30,000 satellites will allegedly connect regions where conventional technology is not economically viable. SpaceX is already no longer selling the antennas in certain areas because too many are already in use there. According to the Washington Post, the US government is about to spend tens of billions of US dollars on broadband expansion, and one of the issues being discussed is whether money should also go to Starlink. With the research paper, which can be viewed online, the X-Lab now wants to initiate a debate on whether this would make sense.
(mho)
