Google: Earthquake early warning system did not work properly in Turkey

The US company Google has admitted that its Android Earthquake Alert (AEA) system failed to warn millions of people correctly and in time during the devastating earthquakes in southern Turkey on February 6, 2023. This was reported by the British BBC.

According to the report, the warning system was operational at the time of the first quake, but only 469 "Take Action" warnings were sent out. "Take Action" is the highest level of warning and overrides even the "do not disturb" settings on cell phones.

Google told the BBC that half a million people received the less intrusive "Be Aware" warning. This is intended for minor shocks and does not override the device settings, among other things. Almost ten million people did not receive an adequate warning. In a statement to the BBC, the company admitted that its detection algorithms had greatly underestimated the extent of the quakes. During the first earthquake, the system estimated the shaking at 4.5 to 4.9 on the moment magnitude scale (MMS), far below the actual magnitude of 7.8. "We continue to improve the system based on the knowledge we gain from each earthquake," said a Google spokesperson.

Millions of people not warned in time

According to the BBC, ten million people within a radius of almost 160 kilometers around the epicenter could have received the highest warning level from Google with an advance warning time of up to 35 seconds. As the earthquake occurred at 4:17 a.m., while many people were still asleep, an audible, urgent alarm could have been crucial in saving lives.

The earthquakes in southern Turkey and northern Syria on February 6, 2023 – followed the first quake with a magnitude of 7.8 and a second one on the same day with a magnitude of 7.5 – caused 62,000 deaths and more than 125,000 injuries in both countries. In some cases, the earth's surface was displaced by several meters over hundreds of kilometers. The second major quake was also underestimated by Google's system. According to the report, 8,158 "Take Action" warnings and almost four million "Be Aware" warnings were sent out.

Technology not yet fully tested

Google's Android Earthquake Alerts (AEA) system runs on Android devices, which make up over 70 percent of cell phones in Turkey. It is able to detect seismic activity based on data from millions of Android phones. As earthquake waves travel slower through the earth than digital signals, the system can send warnings before the quake reaches users.

"Every earthquake early warning system faces the same challenge – of tuning algorithms for large-scale events," Google explained. However, scientists interviewed by the BBC criticized the fact that it took more than two years to obtain the information on the early warning system's problems.

According to Google, its system is intended as a supplement and not a replacement for national warning systems. However, there are those who fear that too much trust is being placed in a technology that has not yet been fully tested. "I think it's absolutely critical that we're very transparent about how well it works," Harold Tobin, director of the Pacific Northwest Seismic Network, told the BBC.

(akn)