Market researchers: AI PCs will reach almost a third of the market share by 2025

According to the latest Gartner forecast, 77.8 million desktop PCs and notebooks with AI-enabled processors are expected to find a buyer by the end of the year. This would correspond to a market share of 31% of global shipments. By 2026, sales are expected to rise to a good 143 million devices and a market share of almost 55%. This means that the market research company is revising its extremely optimistic forecast from the previous year, according to which around 43% of all computers delivered would have to be equipped with an AI unit (Neural Processing Unit, NPU) by the end of 2025. Companies would only buy AI-capable PCs in the coming year.

"AI PCs are fundamentally changing the market, but their adoption is slowing in 2025 due to tariffs and a reluctance to buy as a result of general market uncertainty," says Gartner analyst Ranjit Atwal, explaining why he expects growth to be more subdued. Nevertheless, the analyst is convinced that users will continue to invest in corresponding PC models in order to be prepared for the increasing integration of AI in end devices.

More local AI applications expected

In view of the increasing spread of AI PCs, Gartner assumes that around 40 percent of software providers will invest in AI functions that work directly on PCs by the end of 2026. Smaller language models that can be executed locally on PCs enable task-specific "intelligence" and faster response times. Compared to their larger counterparts, SLMs also promise lower energy consumption and less dependency on cloud services and therefore better protection of personal data.

The market research company expects AI PCs to become the "norm" in device providers' portfolios in around four years' time. This is only logical, as AMD, Intel, and ARM processor developers such as Qualcomm are all integrating AI units into new CPUs.

However, in order to participate in the expected growth, PC manufacturers would have to work on the software-defined, user-oriented tailoring of their offerings for specific use cases in addition to the bare hardware. Atwal is convinced that the future of AI PCs lies in customization. This allows users to configure their devices with the apps and functions they want. "The more users interact with a provider's AI PC, the better the provider understands them," explains the market researcher. And that would lead to continuous improvements, which in turn would pay off in greater brand loyalty.

(mma)