Comment: The combustion engine will die faster than many believe

Contents

The current situation on the car market is a poor indicator of the epochal change that is just around the corner in terms of driving energy. In many social discussions, one could get the impression that the question of where the journey is heading is open. But it has been decided, regardless of whether you like it or not. There are several signs that the end of the combustion engine in cars is much closer than some people think. I will explain why I am of this opinion in three parts—this is the first.

E-mobility: it's far from all good

No, not all the issues and concerns surrounding electric cars have been resolved. The charging situation has gotten out of hand in recent years. The fact that some providers are charging 90 cents/kWh is simply brazen and should be punished with a vote of the feet by avoiding such providers. The charging infrastructure is growing and thriving, but even with more than 170,000 public charging points in Germany, it is by no means seamless. In some cases, car manufacturers are charging drastic surcharges for e-drive, which seems less and less justified. At the cell level, 40 euros/kWh energy content is not far off. Even equipment that is quite lavish by today's standards no longer costs utopian sums.

A commentary by Martin Franz

Martin Franz is the deputy editor-in-chief of heise/Autos. He has left his professional tinkering behind in order to devote himself to the topic of mobility in a different way: descriptively. His enthusiasm for cars has changed, but not diminished.

Liquid fuel still has an advantage when it really is a matter of quickly topping up large quantities of driving energy. Such scenarios are often mentioned in discussions, but in practice they are rarely actually required. But they do exist. Improvement is in sight in all these areas—through research, competition, and increasing demand. And finally, yes, there are combustion engines whose sound I will miss—no question. But I won't miss the hum of good everyday combustion engines.

Reasons for the end

Nevertheless, the end of the combustion engine is closer than many debates make it seem. There are numerous reasons for this: the European Emissions Trading System 2 (EU-ETS 2), the Euro 7 emissions standard, global developments including the target of zero grams of CO₂ for fleet consumption, climate protection, and, finally, how an electric car feels in everyday use compared to a combustion engine.

The combustion engine is becoming more expensive

The Euro 7 emissions standard and the expansion of emissions trading will make the purchase and maintenance of cars with combustion engines pricier than before from 2027. The Euro 7 emissions standard will apply to all newly homologated vehicles from November 29, 2026, and to all cars registered in the EU for the first time from November 29, 2027. The EU Commission expects additional costs of 90 to 150 euros per car, which is probably an optimistic estimate. This is because the tolerated deviations during real measurements on the road, for example, for nitrogen oxides, have become small. This increases the costs considerably. There is also an extensive documentation obligation: manufacturers must disclose certain things. The long-term effectiveness of exhaust gas aftertreatments must be proven. All of this costs money, which makes new cars with combustion engines pricier.

The fact that traction batteries in electric cars with the Euro 7 emissions standard must last for a defined period of time changes practically nothing for manufacturers. In the future, at least 80 percent usable residual energy content will be required after five years or 100,000 km and 72 percent after eight years or 160,000 km. As a rule, the warranty already covers this today. Manufacturers do not guarantee anything that has not been priced in beforehand.

CO₂ certificates on the market

Drivers of combustion engines must be prepared for rising fuel prices. From 2026, the CO₂ price per ton will climb from 55 to up to 65 euros – and that's just a foretaste. A reform of emissions trading is due in 2027. The price of CO₂ certificates will then no longer be set by the national government but will be determined by a European market mechanism. CO₂ emitters must purchase certificates on an exchange—supply and demand determine the price, which is passed on to consumers. The basic principle: the number of certificates is limited and is reduced annually. Additional certificates can be tipped onto the market in emergencies, and it is reasonable to assume that some political players want to soften the rules in this way. However, the basic procedure is not questioned by parties that consider themselves to be in the middle.

Transport sector in emissions trading

The transport sector will also be included in emissions trading from 2027. Different figures are circulating as to what this will ultimately mean for the price of fuel at the pump. But one thing should be clear, even if the price is formed on the market: in perspective, fuel will never again be as cheap as it currently is. In February, the ADAC warned of a price increase of up to 19 cents per liter, and not just once, but every year, as the price rises with the decreasing number of CO₂ certificates. Arne Joswig, president of the German Association of the Automotive Industry, has already called on politicians to take countermeasures. Otherwise, the CO₂ price could rise to 300 euros/tonne by 2030. According to Joswig, this would raise the price at the filling station by 70 to 80 cents per liter.

As the energy sector is already anchored in emissions trading, the increase in the price of electricity will be less drastic. In any case, I assume that something will change on the market for charging station operators in the near future. The AC charging station near my office is currently charging 74 cents/kWh. That's good for me, because it means that there is always at least one free space for my test car—and only in rare exceptional cases can I not choose the connection at the charging station. For the operator, however, it cannot be a sustainable business model in the long term that his charging station is practically only used by me.

Away from the masses = expensive

The next point will hurt everyone who belongs to the “I urgently need to cover 1000 km in five hours several times a week without stopping to refuel” faction. Such requirement profiles may indeed exist, but they are the exception even in Germany, and such a scenario simply does not play a role globally. So anyone who formulates this as non-negotiable must be prepared for the fact that their requirements will only be allocated to a few people. And where there are no economies of scale, it becomes expensive for the individual. My guess: really expensive.