Analysis with Unexpected Result: Species Extinction Has Slowed Again
Few would doubt that more and more animals and plants are currently going extinct. One analysis comes to a different conclusion. This is not a cause for relief.
The Amur leopard is endangered, but recently the small populations in the wild have slightly recovered.
(Image: Adalbert Dragon/Shutterstock.com)
Contrary to popular belief, probably no more animal and plant species are going extinct currently than in the recent past. The previous peak in species extinction may even have been reached 100 years ago. At least, this is the opinion of a biologist from the University of Arizona who analyzed data on the extinction of more than 900 animal and plant species over the past 500 years. The two scientists see the central finding of their study as the realization that species have mostly gone extinct for different reasons in the past than today, and that historical data cannot simply be extrapolated into the future. They do not want their work to be understood as a cause for relief, but as a basis for an accurate assessment of the problem.
Historical Species Extinction is Not Suitable for Prediction
Kristen Saban and John Wiens now remind, that prominent studies have repeatedly pointed out that a mass extinction is currently occurring on Earth, with the speed and extent of species extinction increasing significantly. However, this assumption rests on shaky foundations, and their own analysis leads to a different conclusion. According to them, the speed of extinction for plants, arthropods, and terrestrial vertebrates peaked 100 years ago and has been declining since then. At that time, invasive species on islands were primarily responsible, while the greatest danger currently comes from the destruction of natural habitats.
However, one cannot extrapolate from historical developments to the present and future solely because the greatest dangers to flora and fauna have changed, the two continue. Another reason for the decreasing speed of species extinction is the hard work on species conservation. Other studies have already provided indications that investments in this area actually yield results. At the same time, the two point out that mainly mollusks such as snails and mussels, as well as vertebrates, are going extinct, while plants and arthropods are less affected. It was still surprising that there is no evidence from the past 200 years of accelerated species extinction due to climate change.
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The research group surprisingly calls historical species extinction an unreliable factor for predicting current and future risks. At the same time, they explicitly point out that their study does not mean that climate change poses no danger: "It only shows that past extinction events do not allow conclusions to be drawn about present and future threats," says Wiens. The loss of biodiversity is a major problem, and we are probably not even seeing its consequences yet, adds Saban. However, it is important that we talk about it with precision in order to detail current losses and prevent future ones. The group has published their work in the Proceedings of the Royal Society of London.
(mho)
