High DRAM and Flash Prices Slow Sales of Notebooks, Smartphones, and PCs

High and further rising prices for DRAM and NAND flash memory chips will slow the growth of some market segments next year, according to Taiwanese firm Trendforce. For example, it is significantly reducing its forecast for smartphones: Trendforce previously expected zero growth in unit numbers for 2026, but now anticipates a decline of 2 percent.

Trendforce also expects a decline in sold unit numbers for notebooks in 2026 by 2.4 percent instead of growth of 1.7 percent.

On the one hand, high prices for LPDDR5X and DDR5 SDRAM chips and for flash memory will lead to more expensive devices, dampening purchasing enthusiasm, Trendforce states. On the other hand, smaller smartphone brands may find it difficult to procure enough DRAM chips at all.

Budget Devices More Affected

Trendforce assumes that lower-priced smartphones and notebooks will be more severely affected by rising procurement costs for memory chips. For cheaper devices, the prices of memory chips account for a larger proportion of the total manufacturing costs than for more expensive devices, and at the same time, the profit margin is lower.

Furthermore, when chips become scarce, manufacturers are likely to prioritize incorporating them into more expensive products with higher profits. According to industry experts, the entire global production of NAND flash chips for 2026 is already largely sold out.

Trendforce even considers a market consolidation for smartphones possible, meaning that individual manufacturers may exit the market because the business is no longer profitable for them.

Large brands, on the other hand, tend to enter into longer-term supply contracts. Samsung, as the world's largest manufacturer of both memory chips and a major smartphone producer, is less reliant on suppliers.

Notebooks Could Become Significantly More Expensive in 2026

Currently, according to Trendforce, the costs for memory chips (RAM/DRAM and flash for SSD) account for between 10 and 18 percent of the total manufacturing costs of a notebook. In 2026, this share could rise to over 20 percent.

However, manufacturers may not be able to pass on the increased costs in full to buyers of the devices. This is because it is foreseeable that demand will likely remain weak. Trendforce expects that some manufacturers might therefore delay the development of new models to save costs.

(ciw)