AI to drive economic growth despite shrinking population
The German economy is barely growing – but AI could help, say researchers from the IAB. They predict higher GDP growth with broad AI adoption.
(Image: beeboys/Shutterstock.com)
The use of AI could help the German economy achieve new growth, predicts a research team from the Institute for Employment Research (IAB). According to the forecast, gross domestic product (GDP) could grow by an average of 0.8 percentage points per year more strongly within the next 15 years. Higher labor productivity, cost savings, and new business areas enabled by AI are expected to provide the additional boost, according to the IAB.
At the same time, the experts anticipate significant impacts on the labor market and shifts in various professional sectors: For example, AI is expected to lead to either the elimination or creation of around 1.6 million jobs in the next 15 years. However, the total number of jobs is expected to remain largely stable in the future scenario, as the opposing effects would balance each other out overall.
The forecast is particularly favorable for jobs in IT and information service providers, where the demand for labor is expected to increase by around 110,000 people. In contrast, 120,000 jobs could be eliminated in areas such as business services.
Specialist jobs primarily affected
"AI is primarily leading to a upheaval in the labor market. Different tasks and competencies will be in demand in the future, not less work," explains Enzo Weber, head of the IAB research area "Forecasts and Macroeconomic Analyses." However, it is crucial that companies develop new business models and create the necessary infrastructure for the use of AI.
According to the forecast, who is affected by the impact of AI also depends on one's own qualifications. Activities at the specialist and expert level are particularly affected: while jobs at this level will continue to increase, they will show a significant dampening compared to scenarios without broad AI adoption. The demand for unskilled and semi-skilled workers will essentially remain unchanged, while the demand for skilled workers will be comparatively higher.
Videos by heise
"AI can become a bridge between economic growth and a shrinking population. To realize this potential, targeted qualification strategies and a high degree of adaptability in the economy and society are needed," summarizes IAB researcher Christian Schneemann, concluding the forecast.
(axk)
