Court decision on Google's advertising business expected in 2026

In the US, Google faced two potential breakups this year. The separation from Chrome could be averted, while the court case concerning an alleged advertising monopoly is still pending. This week, the trial entered its final phase.

Since September 2025, Judge Leonie Brinkema from Virginia has been hearing testimony from publishers, advertisers, and, of course, Google. The question is whether the company, with its dominance of approximately 90 percent of the online advertising market according to the US Department of Justice, is hindering competitors. Owning a monopoly is not illegal in itself in the US, but the methods used to maintain it can be unlawful. Google sells ad slots are sold, among other things, to the highest bidder when websites are accessed, in a real-time auction.

As early as April 2025, Brinkema determined that the combination of serving ads (Ad Server) and selling the ads themselves (Ad Exchange) constitutes a monopoly. The Department of Justice and some of the states involved in the lawsuit are therefore also calling for a breakup of this business. Google, or rather its parent company Alphabet, should grant competitors access to its systems or at least sell parts of them. The proceedings have been ongoing since 2024, but were also continued by the new US administration.

After a verdict, a breakup could take years

According to what the judge told the New York Times, the timing is now crucial for her. If she issues a verdict, Brinkema stated, Google could appeal, which could delay a final decision for years. And according to expert testimony in court, it would take up to two years to carry out a sale. A judicial order, without a verdict, would bring about faster changes in the advertising market. This is also the opinion of Google's lead negotiator, Karen Dunn, according to the report. She estimates a period of one year to 15 months to change the structures.

To this end, Google has made proposals that, among other things, aim to give publishers more insight into the mechanisms so they can market themselves better. Competing advertisers should also gain access to Google's systems. These proposals are reminiscent of the verdict in the other proceedings with which Google was able to prevent a forced sale of Android and Chrome. Among other things, the company committed to sharing search data and search results with competitors.

For Google, maintaining its advertising business in its current form is essential. Its parent company, Alphabet, generates about three-quarters of its revenue from advertising. In the last quarter alone, revenue from advertising grew by 12.6 percent year-on-year to 56.57 billion US dollars. This figure already includes YouTube, a Google-owned platform.

(nie)