Labor market for computer scientists: No better prospects

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The number of registered unemployed IT specialists rose by 25 percent in September 2025 compared to the previous year. 57,665 computer scientists and other IT specialists were registered as unemployed at the end of September this year. For comparison: ten years ago, there were less than half, at 27,910. This data comes from the official statistics of the Federal Employment Agency. Is this sharp increase a valid reason for employees to worry about their jobs in the IT sector?

The Federal Employment Agency (BA) denies this, as employment of socially insured IT employees increased by 463,000 in the ten-year period from 2014 to 2024. This is a remarkable increase of 70 percent. In the same period, however, socially insured employment as a whole only saw a meager increase of 13 percent, according to the Federal Employment Agency's report titled ‚The labor market for ICT professions in the context of transformation‘, dated June 2025. "The fact that the unemployment rate is nevertheless rising shows that the potential of IT specialists is currently greater than the market can absorb," a BA spokesperson said in response to an inquiry.

Therefore, it could currently be difficult for career starters – especially since there are more and more of them and there will be even more. Student numbers in computer science have been rising continuously since 2008. In the academic year 2023/24, there was a peak with around 258,000 students. The BA spokesperson also assesses their labor market prospects positively: "In principle, the labor market prospects for career starters in IT are good; despite everything, the IT sector offers a very large number of employment opportunities."

Still a shortage of skilled workers

However, the situation is more difficult for IT specialists with vocational training. They are disproportionately affected by unemployment. "The statistics suggest that they have a harder time in the labor market than academics," says the BA spokesperson. In 2024, 19,800 new training contracts were concluded in the four IT training professions. In contrast, there are around 35,000 graduates from computer science degree programs. The unemployment rate in IT was 3.7 percent at the end of 2024. Overall, it was 6.0 percent.

Despite the significant increase in unemployment, the IT industry association Bitkom announced an IT skills shortage in August: Germany continues to lack more than 100,000 IT specialists. There were said to be 109,000. Although this was significantly less than two years ago with 149,000, companies are not seeing a real easing of the skills shortage, the association stated, citing a survey of companies. According to the survey, almost 80 percent expect the IT skills shortage to worsen further in the future.

How can it be that on the one hand unemployment among IT personnel is rising sharply, and on the other hand there is a high shortage of skilled workers? Adél Holdampf-Wendel, Head of Future of Work & Labor at Bitkom, explains the seemingly contradictory situation: "Against the backdrop of the weak economic development in Germany and geopolitical uncertainties, companies are generally holding back on new hires and are even cutting jobs in some cases." However, this is a cyclical and not a structural change.

At the same time, the demand for personnel in IT profiles is changing. "Demand in classic IT tasks such as software development or application support remains high. However, specialized expertise in artificial intelligence, IT security, and cloud services is also increasingly in demand." There are not enough specialists in these areas, or not yet enough. If the qualifications of job seekers do not match the requirements of companies, this can lead to a mismatch in the labor market. "This means: a shortage of skilled workers can exist despite existing and even rising unemployment." This shortage then exists in particularly sought-after profiles. Others are less in demand.

Refilling positions is easier

Thus, job offers are decreasing almost in step with rising unemployment. According to statistics from the employment agency, the number of open positions for computer scientists and other IT professions decreased by 22.3 percent to just under 12,000 in September 2025 compared to the previous year. However, only about every second open position is reported to the BA, informs the Institute for Employment Research.

In their studies, HR service providers, consulting firms, and economic institutes examine job postings by companies or conduct surveys in companies to draw conclusions about changes in demand for IT personnel.

For example, HR service provider Hays notes in its skilled labor index for the third quarter of 2025 a decrease of 20 percentage points in the overall demand for skilled workers in Germany compared to the previous quarter. In the IT sector, the index shows only a slight decrease with a minus of seven percentage points. SAP and database developers are in the highest demand with increases of 34 and 19 percentage points, respectively.

In a survey conducted by the consulting firm Kienbaum in August of this year, almost 60 percent of IT companies stated that it is easier for them to fill open positions than in the previous year. The tense situation in the labor market has thus eased. However, 28 percent announced staff reductions.

The Institute of the German Economy (IW) has closely examined the development of job offers for IT personnel comparing the years 2023 and 2024 and notes that since the German economy has lost its momentum: The overall economic demand for IT personnel is rapidly declining – especially for highly qualified experts. According to the IW study, the number of open positions for qualified workers decreased by 4.3 percent in the comparison period, and for IT activities by 26.2 percent, six times as much. In absolute terms, open positions decreased by 16,500 to 46,431. The decline in IT professions is thus above average and an effect of declining investments in economically uncertain times: when less is invested, there are fewer projects and thus less personnel is needed.

Situation particularly difficult for highly specialized professionals

According to IW, the decline in job offers is most severe for IT experts who typically have a Master's degree or a diploma. Job advertisements for them decreased by around a third between 2023 and 2024 to only 26,753 offers. Job offers for experts in computer science (minus 46.2 percent) and business informatics (minus 38.2 percent) have collapsed particularly drastically. "The fact that open positions have significantly decreased in these highly specialized professions is likely also due to companies becoming more hesitant in implementing highly complex IT projects, which often require experts for their implementation," says study author Jurek Tiedemann, Economist for Skilled Labor Security at IW.

Despite an overall declining demand for IT specialists, there were sectors that advertised more positions than in the previous year. For example, in 'Legal and Tax Consulting, Auditing,' there was an increase in open positions of 518 percent to an all-time high of 1,770 offers. "Recently, the focus there has increasingly been on implementing new digital solutions, for example, to digitize parts of tax consulting and auditing – also with the help of Artificial Intelligence (AI)," says Tiedemann.

There has also been an increased demand for IT specialists in civil engineering, energy supply, and the insurance industry recently. However, this was rather small.

Speaking of AI: to what extent could Artificial Intelligence replace IT personnel? "We assume that AI will change the requirements for IT employees and that competent handling of AI will become more important," says Tiedemann from IW. Routine tasks could be taken over by AI, and IT employees could dedicate themselves to highly specialized tasks. "Therefore, experience and specialization are becoming increasingly important in finding a suitable position in an IT role."

In its survey, Kienbaum asked companies whether they invest in Artificial Intelligence as a means to increase efficiency and combat rising wage costs. Almost half answered yes. According to Bitkom, AI costs jobs but also creates new ones. The overall impact of AI on the IT labor market cannot yet be determined.

What all interview partners agree on: when the economy picks up again, the IT labor market will also gain momentum.

For 2026, the German government and economic institutes expect moderate but positive economic growth of around 1.3 percent. Globally, the International Monetary Fund expects 3.1 percent. Therefore, it is highly likely that momentum in Germany will not pick up next year.

(mki)