High RAM prices: 2026 will not be a good year for smartphones and notebooks

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Primarily due to the expansion of large AI data centers, RAM, which is also used in smartphones and notebooks, will become scarce and pricier. It is said that the entire RAM production for 2026 is already largely sold out. According to analysts, this will lead to smartphones and notebooks released next year having to make do with less RAM to maintain previous prices. However, more RAM is also necessary in these device categories due to AI tasks that are executed directly on devices. Therefore, manufacturers had increased the RAM configuration in recent years – at least in top smartphones to 16 GByte, while 8 GByte tended to become the standard in entry-level and mid-range smartphones. For mid-range notebooks and above, 16 GByte and more are now the norm, which could reverse in 2026.

Cost-cutting primarily for entry-level models

This is assumed, among others, by the analysis firm TrendForce, which expects manufacturers to install only four GByte of RAM in their entry-level smartphones for 2026, while the previous standard provided up to eight GByte. While this limited RAM will likely lead to continued stable low prices, it will also negatively impact overall system performance.

For mid-range devices, TrendForce expects no more than 8 GByte of RAM, although some manufacturers in this segment have already installed RAM modules with up to 12 GByte. Next year, this trend is likely to reverse radically. Manufacturers who already install 16 GByte RAM modules in their high-end smartphones are likely to retain them, but high-end devices could increase in price.

TrendForce also predicts that Apple may also adjust its device prices next year due to high memory prices. “The share of memory components in the total cost of iPhones is expected to rise significantly in the first quarter of 2026,” writes the analysis firm. The development in the memory market could “prompt Apple to reconsider pricing strategies for new models and consider reducing or eliminating price cuts for older models,” it adds.

Budget cuts in features

A forecast from manufacturer circles, leaked by a leaker and reported by the South Korean portal Naver, is even more drastic. According to the report, smartphones with 16 GByte RAM could be almost discontinued in 2026. The number of 12-GByte smartphones could be reduced by up to 40 percent, while entry-level models could be offered with 4 or 6 GByte RAM.

The market researchers at Counterpoint also forecast in a recent analysis for 2026 that the smartphone market could fall by up to 2.1 percent due to the memory situation. The lower market segment (under $200) is particularly affected, as “material costs have increased by 20 to 30 percent since the beginning of the year,” says Research Director MS Hwang. In the mid and upper market segments, prices have only increased by 10 to 15 percent.

Especially in the lower price ranges, larger price increases for smartphones are not sustainable, according to Senior Analyst Yang Wang from Counterpoint. “And if cost pass-through is not possible, OEMs (manufacturers) will start reducing parts of their portfolio,” he observes, noting significantly lower unit volumes for entry-level smartphones. Due to cost pass-through and portfolio shifts, Counterpoint expects an increase in average selling prices by 6.9 percent next year. For a 1000 Euro smartphone, that would be almost 70 Euros more.

The upcoming quarters could be best weathered by the two major manufacturers, Apple and Samsung, according to Counterpoint. “However, it will be difficult for other companies that do not have the same room to manage market share and profit margins. This will be particularly evident among Chinese OEMs throughout the year,” Wang explains.

Less well-positioned manufacturers could reduce not only RAM in the coming months to “minimize risk,” but also make savings on other components such as camera modules, displays, and audio components.

Laptops also affected

Not only smartphones will likely see budget cuts out of necessity, but notebooks will also be affected. For example, high-end models can be equipped with 16 GByte as standard, while higher RAM configurations will become rare, according to TrendForce. In the mid-range and entry-level segments, one can expect eight GByte of RAM again, although companies like Microsoft and Apple require at least 16 GByte of memory due to AI integration in their operating systems.

The price jump for RAM is not over yet. Counterpoint expects RAM prices to rise by another 40 percent by the second quarter of 2026. Accordingly, manufacturers are likely to be forced to adjust further.

(afl)