Dominance at Sea: China Outpaces Europe in Offshore Wind Power

The global expansion of offshore wind energy has gained momentum in recent years, fundamentally changing the existing balance of power. Current analyses by the German Aerospace Center (DLR) paint a clear picture: by spring 2025, approximately 15,100 offshore wind turbines are expected to be in operation worldwide. The geographical shift is particularly noteworthy. While Europe has long been considered the pioneer and trendsetter in the industry, China has now taken the lead by a significant margin.

According to the DLR analysis, China now accounts for 51 percent of all global installations in this sector, while the EU represents only 26 percent and Great Britain 19 percent.

This transformation, researchers say, has occurred at an astonishing pace. In spring 2021, the global wind power map looked more balanced. At that time, nearly 9500 turbines were installed, with China, at 39 percent, almost on par with the EU and the United Kingdom.

According to DLR experts, the decisive turning point was the following year, 2021. During these record months, over 3400 new wind turbines were erected worldwide, 77 percent of them in Chinese waters. For comparison: Great Britain accounted for only ten percent and the entire EU for just five percent of the new installations at that time.

Even the tower height can be calculated

The scientists achieved these precise insights through an innovative monitoring process by the Earth Observation Center (EOC) in Upper Bavaria. They used radar data from the Sentinel-1 satellites of the European Space Agency (ESA), which scan the Earth's surface regardless of cloud cover or daylight. Using Artificial Intelligence (AI) and neural networks, the vast image archive is searched for specific patterns.

The system not only detects the position of the turbines but can also document the construction progress quarterly based on radar signatures – from laying the foundation to final assembly. Even the tower height can be calculated from the signals, allowing conclusions to be drawn about the installed capacity in megawatts.

The figures underscore China's lead. In the first quarter of 2025, global capacity reached around 92 gigawatts (GW), a doubling compared to 2021. Of this, an impressive 52 GW are attributed to China. The EU collectively reaches 21 GW, while Germany stands at approximately 9.4 GW.

According to the report, Germany is fundamentally on track for its goal of 30 GW by 2030. However, compared to the Chinese expansion pace, it appears almost static.

A key factor in China's success is seen in its massive port infrastructure along hundreds of kilometers of coastline. Satellite images show vast storage areas for rotor blades and towers, serving as highly efficient logistics hubs for rapid offshore assembly.

Bottleneck: Grid connection

Beyond the statistics, the now publicly released dataset, which includes all 15,100 turbine locations, is intended to provide a basis for accompanying research. According to the DLR, the information is freely accessible through European science portals.

It is intended to help better understand environmental impacts and make the planning of maritime mega-infrastructures more sustainable. With this, the center aims to provide an independent control instrument to objectively assess the progress of the global energy transition and scientifically document the rapid changes in the oceans.

Other researchers, however, counter in the "Monitoring Report" on the energy transition from September that the expansion targets here, especially for offshore wind by 2030, will likely be missed. This is attributed to grid-related delays and supply chain problems. According to these estimates, the offshore target of 30 GW will only be reached in 2032.

The biggest bottleneck in Germany is considered to be grid connection: completed wind farms often stand idle for months due to a lack of converter platforms or subsea cables. Furthermore, electricity transport to the south is delayed by sluggish transmission line expansion on land.

Economically, inflation and high interest rates are squeezing returns, while material costs for steel and copper are rising. Global competition leads to a shortage of specialized vessels and port capacities.

Technically, shading effects in densely built-up sea areas reduce efficiency. In addition, there are strict environmental regulations for the protection of porpoises and new security risks due to potential sabotage of maritime infrastructure.

(vbr)