End of combustion engines: A possible end to the end that is (almost) no end

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Laws are made by humans and can be changed—unlike the laws of physics. The European Commission has presented a proposal for a new version of the CO₂ fleet mechanism. This draft will subsequently be negotiated with Parliament and the Council in trilogue. Compared to the original goal, however, the legislative initiative contains only minimal relaxations: the framework for the initial registration of passenger cars with combustion engines beyond 2034 is extremely narrow. The end of the end is almost nonexistent. One beneficiary of the new rules could be Volkswagen, of all companies.

Specifically, the Commission's proposal stipulates that the average CO₂ emissions of passenger cars newly registered in the European Economic Area must be reduced not by 100 percent compared to the baseline year 2021 but by 90 percent from 2035 onwards. This already shows how minor the planned revision is.

Possible compensation

While formally all combustion engine powertrains (hybridized or not) will still be allowed to be registered for the first time in the EU from 2035 onwards within the remaining ten percent, all powertrains with combustion engines (hybridized or not) will still be allowed to be registered for the first time in the EU. The EU Commission nevertheless adheres to the climate protection goal: the CO₂ emissions of these passenger cars must demonstrably be compensated either by low-CO₂ steels produced in Europe (seven percent) or by climate-neutral fuels (three percent). The few e-fuels that are foreseeable to be produced could be burned, for example, in a Porsche or a Ferrari.

The automotive industry will also gain more flexibility in the years 2030 to 2032. As in the accounting period from 2025 to 2027, a shortfall in CO₂ targets in one registration year can be offset by a corresponding surplus in another year. Normally, the targets must be met every year.

Supercredits for small new car class

A special feature is the introduction of the M1e vehicle category: electric cars up to 4.2 m in length will receive supercredits; they will be counted multiple times in the CO₂ balance. This is an attempt to introduce a European Kei car class modeled on Japan, where the maximum dimensions are considerably smaller at 3.4 m in length and 1.48 m in width. In addition, there are similar adjustments for light and heavy commercial vehicles and favorable loans for investments in battery production. This is the state of affairs. What the representatives of the political camps make of the EU Commission's mild change proposal is sometimes absurd.

“Object of desire instead of object of conflict”

The first to celebrate the idea was Manfred Weber (CSU), who is currently the party and group leader of the European People's Party (EPP). Last week, he went to Bild newspaper to put the matter in the right light: “Tens of thousands of industrial jobs” would thus be secured, Weber claims, and he emphasizes: “For us, the car is and remains an object of desire, not an ideological object of conflict.” EPP leader Weber clearly wanted to gain the right to interpret with this action. Look, we saved the combustion engine. You can sleep soundly.

Little criticism from the automotive industry

He seems to have forgotten that it was precisely this conservative party family that adopted the currently valid CO₂ mechanism in Parliament and the Council only a few years earlier. That the entire construct was explicitly designed to be technology-neutral, too. Because politics did not prescribe the battery-electric drive but merely formulated framework conditions.

In most of the 27 EU states, cars or supplier parts are manufactured. There was no significant resistance from these states at the time, partly because planning security was finally established, and this is generally appreciated by the automotive industry. This is also where the criticism from Jan Dornoff of the International Council on Clean Transportation (ICCT) of the EU Commission's draft comes in: It needs “technological clarity instead of confusion,” says Dornoff. From the automotive industry itself, however, little criticism is heard. This could be because most of the content is largely in line with the wishes of European manufacturers.

Tailored Supercredits

One example is the Renault Twingo, whose price for the French market was published just a few hours earlier: in the highest trim level Techno, including a bidirectional charger and modern driver assistance systems, the Twingo costs 21,090 euros there. Although the WLTP range is only 263 km. However, the question must be allowed to be asked: how much this value will increase by 2035 through price drops and technical progress of batteries, and how many buyers cannot live with this future range in a car of this class.

Renault, like the R4 (test) and the R5 (test), can count the Twingo multiple times for the new M1e vehicle category with supercredits. The situation is similar at Volkswagen. The entire small car family, which will hit the road from April, is shorter than the 4.2 m designated for M1e: the ID. Polo, the ID. Cross, the Skoda Epiq, the Cupra Raval, and later the VW ID.1, they all get supercredits.

Volkswagen dominates the e-car market

Regardless of this effect, it is hardly bearable to see how Volkswagen's success in selling electric cars in Germany is being downplayed: the group dominates the rankings, while the supposedly superior products from China have so far had no market relevance. Anyone who believes that this is due to quasi-mafia-like structures in the domestic new car market does not know the qualities of the electric cars from the BMW, Mercedes, and Volkswagen groups.

A real risk, however, is the dependence on China for the production of battery cells. Here, the EU is working on framework conditions that should at least lead to these cells being produced in Europe instead of being imported. See above, the credit lending. It would have been nice if the EU Commission had provided more clarity. The opposite is true outside specialist circles. People who are not deeply involved in the topic might get the impression that the proposal to revise the CO₂ fleet mechanism would mean the end of the combustion engine. In reality, however, it is unlikely that much will change.

(afl)