Race for quantum computers: Europe risks falling behind

Contents

They still sound like science fiction, but they have long been in the sights of global economic powers and IT giants: quantum computers that can simulate complex molecules for new drugs in seconds, sensors that can detect earthquakes weeks in advance, and communication that is uncrackable according to the laws of physics. But who will master this future? The European Patent Office (EPO) and the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) presented a comprehensive assessment in Paris a few days ago, revealing the bright and dark sides for Europe as an innovation location.

The good news: research activity is higher than ever. The bad news: the path from the laboratory to the market is becoming increasingly rocky for European players. While science shines, economic exploitation threatens to get stuck halfway again.

Since 2015, patent activities in the field of quantum technologies have increased fivefold, according to the published figures. Quantum computing in particular stands out – there are now 16 times more patented inventions than nine years ago. This means this sector is growing significantly faster than many other technology fields.

The OECD confirms the trend: "The number of international patent families in the field of quantum technology has increased sevenfold between 2005 and 2024." Since 2014, the sector has been growing at an annual rate of around 20 percent, surpassing the general growth across all technologies, which is only 2 percent.

Germany, France, and Great Britain form the European spearhead. However, EPO President António Campinos warns against premature euphoria. The EU must massively increase its investments to avoid landing permanently in the shadow of the USA. While US giants like IBM, Google, and Microsoft dominated the field in patent applications, the European startup scene is struggling with dangerous stagnation in financing.

The “Academic Trap”

A characteristic of the sector is its proximity to basic research. An unusually high proportion of patent applications – almost a third – cite scientific publications. This shows how deeply the technology is still rooted in the academic world. According to the OECD, over 50 percent of founders in the quantum field have a doctorate, compared to only about 10 percent in other industries.

This is precisely where the problem lies, according to the OECD: commercialization requires private venture capital. This flows significantly more strongly in the USA than in Europe. After a peak in 2021, the flow of money has recently stalled here. The OECD speaks of a phase of consolidation.

New Platforms Against Invisibility

To counteract this, the EPO relies on transparency and networking. A new technology platform is intended to help investors and researchers navigate the jungle of over 31,000 quantum inventions. In addition, the authority has updated its Deep Tech Finder: a filter now makes it possible to specifically identify European startups with quantum patents. This is intended to increase the visibility of European excellence and build a bridge to the capital market.

The competition is not sleeping. According to the study, over 80 percent of the players in the ecosystem are established companies or research institutions that are already consolidating their positions. Large IT corporations dominate the field with their sheer volume of patent portfolios. Without a massive boost in private investment, the quantum boom threatens to become a missed opportunity for Europe, it is said, while next-generation data centers are already being built elsewhere.

Supply Chains and Skilled Workers as Bottlenecks

Technology alone will not be enough. The researchers make it clear that global supply chains for critical components could also become a bottleneck. Those who do not have access to resources such as industrial diamonds, special aluminum oxide, or oxometallic salts cannot build the hardware of the future. The OECD urges strategic caution here: "Ensuring crisis-proof access to key materials and technologies is essential to support innovation and mitigate strategic risks."

In addition, there is an imbalance in the labor market. While positions for research and computer science dominate, commercially oriented ones account for less than 10 percent of job advertisements. So, it's not just physicists who are missing, but also the minds that turn physics into a business.

According to the report, Europe is at a crossroads. The academic foundation is there; patent numbers are rising, but the dominance of the USA and the growing pressure from China and Japan are high. OECD Secretary-General Mathias Cormann emphasizes that government strategies must now go beyond pure research funding.

It is necessary to create the right conditions for scaling these technologies – from investments and skilled workers to robust supply chains. With a "strategic quantum policy," states can help optimize the contribution of breakthroughs in this sector to economic growth and social prosperity. In 2023, the German federal government adopted an action concept for quantum technologies to bring Germany to the forefront with 3 billion euros.

(nie)