Power outage in Berlin: "Crisis communication was catastrophic at the beginning"

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Manuel Atug is the founder and spokesperson for the Working Group for Critical Infrastructure (AG KRITIS). The computer scientist and cybersecurity expert not only deals with disaster control theoretically; he was personally affected by the flood in the Ahr Valley in 2021 (he was affected himself). We spoke with him on Tuesday evening about the large-scale power outage in Berlin.

Was an attack on a "single point of failure" exploited in the attack on the power line of a gas power plant?

Apparently yes, because the 110-kilovolt lines that were successfully attacked are known not to be redundant in Berlin.

The so-called oil lines, which are difficult to reconnect, are now causing problems. What is that about?

Oil lines, or oil cables, were installed many decades ago and have been operated for many years. As the name suggests, they contain oil, and there are environmental regulations that must be observed, otherwise the oil will leak everywhere. Because it is such old technology, specialists are also needed who can and are allowed to work with these cables. Connecting a modern plastic cable to an oil cable is a more specialized undertaking; you can't just replace the defective section.

Can't one prepare for incidents, especially with such old technology?

If you have these cables, and Berlin has a lot of them, then you can know about it, take care of it in preparedness and crisis management, and do so appropriately. But obviously, an outage from Saturday to Thursday is not appropriate.

"Nothing was learned from previous incidents"

Berlin also took over 24 hours to declare a major incident. Was that still in time?

It surprises me that it had to be declared, because if you have to do that for such a small situation, it shows that all instances before that have failed, and you then have to call in the Bundeswehr. The mayor is responsible for the operational situation and crisis management. We saw: Crisis communication was catastrophic at the beginning. The operational situation was not really coordinated meaningfully. Nothing has apparently been learned or improved from previous incidents. Instead, the mayor has apparently now become a prosecutor and has also anticipated investigation results, saying: Yes, of course, it was left-wing terrorists and we have to hunt them now. However, the Interior Ministry has made it very clear: these are preliminary investigations and we are not at the end yet.

Why are you still talking about a "small situation" with around 50,000 people without power?

Because there can also be accidents and natural events like the flood in the Ahr Valley that trigger something like this, and you have to be prepared for it. You have to have the right emergency concepts at hand. So that it remains a disruption, but not a crisis, and certainly not a catastrophe. That means, if I do crisis management and disaster control correctly and have the right emergency processes at hand, then it would have remained just a disruption. But what was failed there causes the extent of a crisis or even a catastrophe that could have been averted.

"Complete failure across the board"

The process of aid offers and their hesitant use is often criticized. How do you see that?

Let's take the THW and the Bundeswehr as examples. The Bundeswehr only received its request for official assistance on Monday morning. But the deployment of the Bundeswehr had already been announced beforehand. Either this is total chaos or total incompetence or even both. But you can no longer explain this with logical processes in such a situation. This is truly complete failure across the board. Otherwise, it wouldn't have become such a situation.

The capabilities of the Bundeswehr and THW have always overlapped in disaster relief. What is being demanded now in the case of Berlin?

First, they called the THW, but that apparently wasn't enough. You have to manage that first. And with the Bundeswehr, they first asked for tank trucks to deliver diesel. Then I ask myself the question: Is Berlin not capable of buying or renting tank trucks somewhere? You need the Bundeswehr for that? Seriously? Eventually, it came: The Bundeswehr also has to set up soup kitchens. But the THW can do that too. But it looks more impressive when people in camouflage uniforms do it. A really bad situation, there's nothing you can do.

Does that mean much of this is a distraction?

Berlin itself and those responsible in Berlin show over the years and through the way they communicate that they have no political will, but exhibit strong political helplessness. This has unfortunately been very pronounced in Berlin for years, and the next incident will likely proceed in the same way, because the last incidents also proceeded similarly. Also because the language and the way in which problems and causes are defamed away have remained the same.

Energy supply is a critical infrastructure. To protect it better, there will soon be the so-called "Kritis Dachgesetz". Will that make everything better?

At the federal level, the government, and the Interior Ministry are responsible for the Kritis Dachgesetz for the physical protection of KRITIS. According to the EU, the current draft should have been adopted in 2024. However, it is so full of holes that even Swiss cheese would be envious. For example, almost the entire state and administration have been excluded from it. So they don't have to ensure physical security at all. What is left for some other critical infrastructures? They have to achieve resilience and implement physical security for it. However, what exactly they have to do, i.e., all the requirements in detail, will only be defined in 2030 with a regulation according to the draft law.

And then the penalties are currently mostly 200,000 euros and in extreme cases up to 500,000 euros. This is a bargain price for corporations that would otherwise have to invest several tens of millions. And as mentioned, they can wait until 2030 relaxed, because only then will they know what to do. Then they will read it, then prepare their budget for the next year, then EU tenders will be issued, then contracts will be awarded, and only then will someone start building physical protective measures.

"Strong political unwillingness"

This means that we will only have the first implemented physical protective measures around 2035 to 2040. You can do that, but it shows no political interest in the topic of resilience at the federal level. The draft law also states that it cannot be said how much the budget will be burdened by it. The Interior Ministry simply does not bother to calculate what it will cost. Actually, the EU requirements are clear and calculable. But there is apparently a very strong political unwillingness.

If the federal government doesn't want to regulate it, as they say, who will?

At the state level, we have already seen in NRW and Rhineland-Palatinate how inadequately the Ahr Valley scenario was handled. There was a complete failure, including and especially at the state level. But some lessons have been learned from it, and many municipalities have also said that we cannot rely on them to a limited extent. We have to get some things done ourselves. In this respect, some municipalities and some federal states are not as desolate as is the case in Berlin.

At the municipal level, there are many municipalities that are making positive efforts, but there are also very many that simply have no money and are therefore overwhelmed. And finally: If we want to have a resilient society, then everyone must understand for themselves: We live in a democracy. This means we are sovereign and bear personal responsibility. The state does not do everything for us, and therefore we must also take precautions for ourselves. The BBK checklist is a good starting point for private supplies and precautions for emergencies.

"Then we would have a significantly more resilient society"

You can simply go through the checklist completely relaxed for yourself or test it calmly. So you just pretend that you have no electricity this weekend and don't touch anything that requires electricity. And you might have also overslept charging power banks and the like, and then only use batteries and candles and everything else that doesn't require electricity, and only use that. Then you quickly realize in a self-test what requires electricity: cooking, heating, refrigerator, mobile phone, laptop, tablet, and so on. And then you suddenly realize: Yes, hmm, that's only half great, and I could easily implement these and those deficits. You just have to make yourself aware of it, test it, and then improve it, then we would have a significantly more resilient society at all levels.

(nie)