Internet shutdown in Iran nearing its end? Reports of 30.000 deaths.

Data from Cloudflare and reports from Iran suggest that the regime is easing the internet shutdown after 18 days, with more connections to the isolated country now possible. At the same time, information coming from the country indicates that the mass protests were suppressed with a brutality unprecedented even in the history of the Islamic Republic after the internet was shut down. US magazine Time reports, citing the Iranian Ministry of Health, that they expect more than 30.000 people to have been killed in the country's streets on January 8 and 9. Netblocks reports that government-affiliated entities are attempting to defend their actions through released internet connections.

More information is emerging from the country

After Cloudflare Radar, operated by the internet service provider of the same name, measured increasing data traffic from Iran on the internet as early as the middle of last week, traffic has been rising since Sunday and has now reached 50 percent of the pre-shutdown level. Netblocks, meanwhile, speaks only of gaps in the heavily filtered internet, which are primarily used to spread the Islamic Republic's narratives about the events of recent weeks. At the same time, however, there are increasing reports from the Iranian diaspora according to which temporary connections are possible, for example via VPN services. WhatsApp is being used for this, for instance.

It is still unclear how the internet situation in Iran will develop. The announcements from the Islamic Republic have recently been contradictory. For example, it was stated that the blockade would remain in place at least until the end of the Persian year – March 20. In some cases, it was even said that access to the internet would not be restored at all. Instead, only the strictly controlled network available within the country should remain usable for the general public, while only selected groups would be allowed to access the internet. However, the news agency dpa now reports that sources on the ground have confirmed that some apps and websites have been released.

On January 8, all internet access was blocked; on that day, according to reports, millions of people across the country took to the streets against the regime. Even at the time of the shutdown, there were warnings that Tehran could use the internet blockade to suppress the demonstrations hidden from the world public. The information now slowly emerging from the country suggests that the worst fears have been far surpassed. For days, the names of those killed have been circulated, and there are increasingly more videos recorded after the internet blockade. They show people being killed and later numerous corpses, for example in large warehouses.

According to external analyses, Iran's longest internet shutdown has also triggered discussions within the country's power apparatus. For example, the Critical Threats Project (CTP) writes that some factions fear that lifting the internet ban could ignite new protests. Others, however, see the economic consequences of the blockade itself as a potential trigger for further demonstrations. A former president of the Iranian Chamber of Commerce and Industry warned of unpredictable consequences for the economy, according to dpa. More than 400.000 companies are threatened in their existence, Gholamhossein Shafei told the online portal Asre-Eghtesad. If the internet blockade continues, the livelihoods of nine million employees are at stake.

(mho)