Federal Government: AI does not yet endanger IT career entry

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The German job market for career starters is currently under considerable pressure. However, the causes for this seem to be different from what current debates about Artificial Intelligence (AI) suggest. In response to an inquiry from the Green Party parliamentary group, the Federal Government emphasizes: So far, there is no empirical evidence for the fear that AI would systematically make entry opportunities more difficult.

Analyses from the USA already indicate a significant decline in employment in "AI-exposed" professions, particularly among young adults. However, this trend cannot yet be confirmed for Germany.

Similarly oriented studies by the Institute for Employment Research (IAB) found, according to the now published information from the lead Federal Ministry of Labour, no significant declines among young employees. This could be attributed to powerful language models such as ChatGPT or Gemini. According to the ministry, the transformation is leading to a shift in tasks rather than the elimination of entry-level positions without replacement. The focus of political analysis is therefore currently on the classic economic framework conditions.

Economic cycle as a brake for IT juniors

The government primarily identifies the ongoing economic stagnation as the decisive factor for the tense situation. The overall economic job offer is therefore declining in almost all areas. Particularly affected are business-related services, trade, and the information and communication sector.

This leads to a paradoxical situation for graduates, it is stated: Young people who, in reliance on excellent future prospects, have completed training or studies in the IT sector are now facing a comparatively tight job market. This offers significantly fewer vacancies for entry-level positions than was forecast at the beginning of their training path.

The number of unemployed in professional fields such as engineering and computer science has recently risen slightly disproportionately among those under 30. The labor department explains this primarily by the high sensitivity of these sectors to economic fluctuations. It is therefore a cyclical slump and not a structural displacement by algorithms that is making it difficult for the skilled workers of tomorrow to get started. Due to the uncertainty, companies are simply acting more cautiously when hiring new employees.

Record takeover rate despite crisis

Despite this economic downturn, the dual training system continues to prove to be a stable anchor, the government is optimistic. In 2024, a new record was achieved with a takeover rate of 79 percent. Companies seem to be increasingly focusing on retaining their own junior staff, especially in times of skilled labor shortage. Almost four-fifths of former trainees found their way into insured employment in 2024 with practically no interruption.

Nevertheless, there is growing concern that prolonged economic uncertainty could dampen companies' willingness to invest in training in the long term. Since training initially involves net costs for companies, there is a risk that fewer places will be offered in the event of a prolonged slump. This would exacerbate the shortage of skilled workers in the medium to long term. According to its own statements, the government is closely monitoring this development. However, it currently sees no reason for massive state market interventions as long as the willingness of companies to provide training remains at a high level.

Adapting education to the digital reality

In parallel, the Ministry of Labour is focusing on technology-open training regulations to prepare for the digital transformation, which already provide scope for imparting AI skills. There is no need for legal adjustments in the career counseling of the Federal Employment Agency, as the existing counseling mandate already covers new technological developments. The goal is to make curricula so flexible that new tools such as generative AI can be integrated naturally into everyday work. For this, the entire professional profile does not need to be formally redesigned every time.

Instead, tools such as the Job-Futuromat or portals such as Berufenet are intended to help match the individual potential of young people with the requirements of an AI-influenced job market.

(dahe)