Missing Link: Gas Supply – Between Real Problems and Scaremongering

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Permafrost, snow, and ice: Gas demand rises precisely in such a winter. The public and politicians have been sensitized since the reduction of gas supplies from Russia in 2021/22. "Gas storage facilities are emptying rapidly faster and faster!" reads attention-grabbing videos on YouTube. Panic is being fueled on TikTok, X, and in Bild newspaper: Will we all freeze to death? And who is to blame?

Indeed, some things are not going smoothly this winter. If the winter is very cold, the Baltic Sea freezes over in places. If it is cold for a long time, it freezes even more – because in many places it is not a deep body of water. Off the coast of Rügen, the Baltic Sea is rarely deeper than 20 meters. What invited winter vacationers to take a stroll on the ice along the Binz promenade is a problem for energy supply.

The Winter is Too Cold

The Prorer Wiek, the bay between Sassnitz and Binz where the port of Mukran is located, is also frozen over this winter. Even the buoys marking the safe shipping channel into the port had disappeared in part. In a shallow body of water like the Baltic Sea, they are particularly important.

Ships with LNG could therefore not approach or leave the terminal in the port of Mukran, says "Deutsche Regas", the private operator of the terminal on Rügen. Since the end of January, the LNG tanker "Maran Gas Nice" has been stuck here.

"Missing Link"

What's missing: In the fast-paced world of technology, we often don't have time to sort through all the news and background information. At the weekend, we want to take this time to follow the side paths away from the current affairs, try out other perspectives and make nuances audible.

• All our the "Missing Links"

The Federal Waterways and Shipping Administration is responsible for the safety of the fairway. On Tuesday, it sent its multi-purpose vessel "Neuwerk" from Cuxhaven to Rügen to break the ice. When the "Neuwerk" clears the fairway in the Bay of Binz on Wednesday afternoon, the "Maran Gas Nice" follows at close intervals. A total of four tugs are needed to safely guide the LNG tanker through the icy landscapes of the Baltic Sea.

Since January 27, the "Maran Gas Nice" had been docked at the floating liquefied natural gas transfer station (FSRU) "Neptune" – much longer than planned. It has long since discharged its liquefied natural gas two weeks later, and outside the chalk cliffs, the next LNG tanker, the "Minerva Amorgos", has been waiting for days to be able to dock.

From the port of Mukran, a pipeline runs around Rügen through the Bodden to Lubmin on the mainland, where the Nordstream pipelines ended. The new line was built using residual pipes from the Nordstream 2 project, which were temporarily stored in Mukran. Now, the gas regasified on the Neptune flows through the pipeline to Lubmin and from there enters the national grid.

Instead of Russia, the gas now comes from Qatar, among other places, and the United States. The "Maran Gas Nice" came from the USA, from the Cameron LNG terminal in Louisiana.

Liquefied natural gas is highly controversial. Experts point to environmental damage from the fracking used for extraction. Furthermore, due to the complex process, LNG is pricier than natural gas delivered via pipeline. However, LNG is only a small part of the gas that Germany has so far sourced on world markets and with which it has largely replaced its imports from Russia.

Largely, because there is still a special case until the end of 2026: "Sefe Germany", the former Gazprom Germany, which was placed under government administration by the federal government, has a long-term supply contract for 2.9 million tons of natural gas annually with a liquefied natural gas supplier. This supplier is a subsidiary of a Russian pipeline operator consortium.

So far, the federal government has seen no way to withdraw from this contract. Only when the 19th EU sanctions package against Russia fully takes effect at the beginning of 2027 will Sefe Germany be able to invoke force majeure – and pass on the expected compensation claims directly to the member states.

Across Europe, there are several such old contracts that will now expire due to EU sanctions: for LNG on January 1, 2027, and for pipeline gas on November 1, 2027. From a supply security perspective alone, this is not good timing. Because the gas storage facilities are emptier than ever. At just over 26 percent, the fill level is still at the beginning of the second week of February, which corresponds to around 65 terawatt-hours.

How the storage facilities will be refilled in the future is currently solely a matter for the market. The government had promised to refrain from expensive market interventions. Companies are expected to manage it themselves.

Higher Consumption Than in 2021

On average, households, businesses, and industry drew around 2100 gigawatt-hours (2.1 terawatt-hours) daily from the grid in January – almost as much as in the average of the pre-crisis years 2018 to 2021. Despite all the newly built insulation measures and heat pumps, gas consumption is not decreasing as quickly as hoped.

This also has something to do with prices: Even if the kilowatt-hour for end consumers has not returned to the 2021 level of sometimes less than 5 cents per kWh, despite all the scaremongers, the price for new customers in February is just over 8, sometimes 9 cents. However, existing customers often pay higher prices; the German Association of Energy and Water Industries (BDEW) reports an average price of currently around 11 cents per kilowatt-hour.

In addition, to keep industry internationally competitive, the black-red federal government has recently tried to reduce overall energy costs – including and especially for natural gas.

"No State Action Needed"

The ministry of the responsible minister sees no reason for panic. "Pipeline and LNG imports have so far been reliably at a high level," says a spokesperson for the Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Energy (BMWE). "Despite comparatively low fill levels, there is no need for state action." In principle, sufficient gas is available.

And even if an LNG terminal in Germany should not be accessible, there are enough injection and pipeline capacities in neighboring countries that could be jointly used, according to the ministry. Currently, the lion's share of natural gas consumed in Germany comes from Norway, which finances a large part of its state and global investments with the fields under the North Sea. The majority of EU LNG imports, however, came from the USA in January.

But the low storage fill level, which worries people, is real. Even when Russia strategically stopped filling gas storage facilities in Germany, a few months before the attack on Ukraine, there was more gas stored at the end of January than today. This precisely fuels speculation – and also leads to considerable reflection in political Berlin. Not only are former Green politicians now accusing the CDU energy minister of not fulfilling her responsibility – or of chaining herself to LNG from Donald Trump's grace.

Storage Logic Only Works to a Limited Extent

However, the storage fill level values are indeed only a snapshot of the situation. This is because the various storage facilities in Germany have a capacity of 251 terawatt-hours of gas, plus the necessary "cushion gas". The Federal Republic consumed 864 terawatt-hours of gas in 2025, a good portion of which was in the winter months. The fundamental problem is easily described: It is not possible to store as much gas in the summer as is needed in the winter. Therefore, it must be refilled precisely during the consumption months. But storing seems to be no longer as attractive.

For example, the Wolfersberg storage facility was hardly booked for this winter, says the operator BayernUGS (Underground Storage). The provider has now announced that it intends to have the facility decommissioned. And a second natural gas storage facility in Bavaria is also facing closure: the Breitbrunn facility operated by Uniper is also to be shut down.

Both belong to those four storage facilities that were actually supposed to serve as reserve storage and should have been filled to 40 percent by February 1st. In Bavaria, which is strong industrially but has little wind, gas is also relevant for electricity generation. The reality, however, shows: Wolfersberg was below five percent, Breitbrunn below 14 percent. The market sees no demand.

Mandates Without Consequences

"It is true that individual storage facilities have not met the individual fill level requirements," says a spokesperson for the Federal Network Agency, the responsible supervisory authority. "However, in the overall assessment, the national requirement across all German storage facilities was met and even slightly exceeded." Apparently, there was no problem from the perspective of those responsible.

Forcing the operators to store further quantities would have had to happen before February 1st. "Therefore, the existing storage law offers no further possibilities for action with regard to the current winter," explains the spokesperson for the Federal Network Agency. "No necessity for measures under the Gas Storage Act was seen by the deadline." In other words: there are no consequences for the operators.

Does Bavaria now have a problem due to the low fill levels? Or southern Germany? No, says the Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs. That is not the case: Bavaria is connected to two storage facilities in Austria. And these are indeed, on the one hand, significantly larger than Wolfersberg and Breitbrunn, and on the other hand, also better filled. So, is everything okay?

European Problem

Not entirely, because across Europe, storage fill levels are significantly lower than a year ago. In the Netherlands, for many years a major gas producer in Europe itself and now primarily a transit country for LNG, storage facilities are filled below 20 percent. The system of European solidarity has many components – and makes national considerations difficult.

Only if significant parts of Europe consume less natural gas, hydrogen production gains momentum and is covered by renewables-based electrification where possible, will consumption significantly decrease while phasing out coal-fired power plants. And thus, the demand will also decrease. But so far, it does not look like gas demand will decrease significantly.

The "seasonal demand" in the withdrawal months of November to March has "decreased by approximately 13 percent (from 575 to 502 TWh)", replies BMWE State Secretary Frank Wetzel in response to an inquiry from the Bavarian Green Party politician Lisa Badum. What he means is: In reality, the demand is slightly lower on average.

But are averages a good guide for politicians when it comes to something as weather-dependent as gas supply? In January 2026, for example, consumption was around 275 gigawatt-hours higher than the previous year – and even 100 gigawatt-hours more than the average of the cheap years up to 2021. An outlier, but it doesn't have to stay that way. And if all of Europe were to be affected by a major cold snap, it would trigger an even bigger problem.

The Government is Considering Its Options

Politicians must not speculate that there will be no harsher winters than 2025/2026 in the future. And the cost of gas procurement in 2022 is not yet forgotten. At that time, the state spent 8.7 billion euros within five months – but only as an advance payment. Until last year, gas customers paid this off with the so-called gas storage levy. The remaining 3.06 billion euros at the end of 2025 were then paid from the Climate and Transformation Fund – thus, again, passed on to everyone.

This form of state intervention was expensive. Too expensive, say all parties involved, also because it artificially drove up the market price for gas in 2022. The storage facilities were full – with gas at exorbitant prices, which was later resold at a significant loss.

But what are the levers to reconcile supply security and the market and to keep the country warm through the coming winters? A study for the Ministry of Economic Affairs, available since autumn, is currently being evaluated.

"State intervention should only occur if supply security can be sustainably increased, designed cost-effectively, and does not absolve market players of their responsibility," explains a BMWE spokesperson, outlining the guideline for gas storage. In other words: The risk should not be socialized again.

However, how this can actually be guaranteed is still open. The study authors, in any case, primarily advocated for the creation of a "strategic reserve," whereby a portion of the gas storage capacity would be withdrawn from the market. However, they warned of the price increases that could accompany this. But this, too, is primarily a national, not a European, consideration.

On Wednesday evening, after its involuntarily extended stay in Rügen, the "Maran Gas Nice" left Kap Arkona behind; on Thursday morning, it passed the Great Belt. When it returns from its LNG refueling station, there will likely be no more ice in the Baltic Sea. But also less acute demand. Whether the excitement about the gas storage fill level will have subsided then also depends on whether a comprehensible concept for the future is in place.

(nie)