Streaming Market: End of Netflix Dominance and Rise of Reality Formats

The annual report by US market research firm Luminate on TV streaming for 2025 paints a picture of an industry that, after years of unchecked growth, is finding itself in a reality increasingly shaped by cost concerns. The year marks a turning point: for the first time since data collection began, the most-watched original streaming series in the US is not from Netflix. Instead, the reality show “Love Island USA” on the Peacock service secured the top spot. With a 150 percent increase compared to 2024, this success underscores that unscripted formats can set new records through clever platform switching and social media support.

The development is symptomatic of what Luminate analysts call “The Great Leveling”: a market leveling in which competitors to Netflix have caught up. Measured purely by subscribers, Netflix remains by far the number one. According to figures from the Wall Street Journal, the company has 325 million subscribers, more than twice as many as Disney+ in second place with 133 million. Even the planned takeover of Warner by Paramount does not create a new giant: the services of these companies together only have 210.5 million subscribers.

While the “red N” remains a big player with six titles in the Top 10, its share of viewing time for original productions in the US has fallen below the psychologically important mark of 60 percent for the first time. Competitors like Disney+, Peacock, and Amazon Prime Video have successfully scaled their offerings and are now operating on equal footing. The battle for viewer favor is no longer fought solely on the sheer volume of content, but through quality and user engagement.

Search for Efficiency

Parallel to the shift in market shares, a transformation in production is taking place. The industry is experiencing a veritable exodus from traditional centers. In Los Angeles and the dream factory of Hollywood, the creation of live-action content has collapsed. Searching for tax incentives and lower overall costs, studios are increasingly moving abroad, particularly to Canada or the UK.

This geographical shift is accompanied by a consolidation of portfolios: the era of “prestige drama” – expensive, limited series for awards ceremonies – is increasingly giving way to more cost-effective formats. These offer broader appeal and promote long-term subscriber loyalty through regular viewing habits.

Another trend of the year is the emergence of transmedia ecosystems. The success of a title is no longer measured solely in streamed minutes, but in its presence across various media. A prime example is “KPop Demon Hunters.” The Netflix film was not only a streaming event but also dominated the music charts for weeks with its soundtrack. This interplay between film and music keeps a title in the conversation for significantly longer than an isolated release could. Cinema hits like “Wicked” or “Moana 2” also demonstrate that success on the big screen remains the strongest driver for subsequent streaming viewership.

AI and the Future of Fan Culture

Amidst the upheavals, the industry is also intensively examining the role of generative AI. Luminate's data here points to a divided picture: many consumers express unease about AI-written content. However, a quarter of respondents appear curious. The acceptance of AI content is often correlated with fan passion: those deeply rooted in a film world are more likely to accept AI-assisted content, provided it meaningfully expands the world of their favorite characters.

The challenge for studios now is to reconcile technological innovations with the protection of human creativity. Overall, researchers make it clear: the industry is currently navigating an era in which data and genuine fan engagement have become lucrative currencies.

(mack)