Meta, Virtual Reality and the Principle of Hope
VR is growing despite all warnings. But how the medium is supposed to make the leap into the mainstream remains open. Meta is relying on the principle of hope.
Meta's current flagship device Quest 3.
(Image: Meta)
At the GDC developer conference, Meta provided an insight into the current state of the Quest ecosystem, by far the largest VR marketplace.
Contrary to all doomsday scenarios, games chief Chris Pruett emphasized in a presentation that virtual reality continues to grow: In 2025, the Quest ecosystem will have reached the highest number of individual users to date. "The rumors of the death of VR are greatly exaggerated," Pruett wrote in a blog post that followed his GDC presentation on Wednesday.
However, user growth alone is no reason to cheer. That an ecosystem grows over time instead of shrinking is the least one can expect. And Meta remains silent about the actual number of active VR users after more than ten years. A fact that speaks volumes.
It also remains unclear how often and intensely people use their Quest headsets today. Only such metrics show how vital an ecosystem truly is.
In terms of software revenue, not much has changed in the past year: After revenue increased by 12 percent in 2024, it only grew slightly in 2025, says Pruett. The fact that the long-time Meta executive does not give a figure and instead refers to the already slow growth of the gaming industry does not bode well.
An Ecosystem in Transition
Last year, Meta already admitted that the ecosystem is not in the best shape: The enthusiasts who once helped Meta Quest 2 succeed are now participating much less in the ecosystem and are no longer spending as much money as they did a few years ago. They have been replaced by teenagers, who are now the most active user group, but are far less affluent and are more interested in meme-driven free-to-play games than in elaborately produced VR titles like "Batman Arkham Shadow" or "Marvel's Deadpool VR" (both Meta productions).
"Big-budget AAA Hollywood-style narrative games are simply too expensive for today's market," Pruett admits, while also stating that premium apps, not microtransactions, are the biggest revenue driver.
Videos by heise
The ecosystem's growth, which has fallen short of expectations, prompted Meta to implement radical cost-cutting measures at the beginning of the year: Around 1.500 employees in the VR division were laid off, and the company closed almost all first-party game studios.
The austerity measures were accompanied by a strategic change of course: Meta Quest is to focus more strongly on classic VR experiences in the future, rather than on the Metaverse, which is disliked by many users. To this end, money will continue to flow into VR games, but into those from third-party developers rather than in-house productions. Last year, Meta helped release around 140 games, and in 2026, there are expected to be even more, Pruett said at GDC.
It is questionable whether Meta can win back former users and encourage them to spend money with this return to old values. Especially since the company has scrapped its own game productions and plans to offer VR hardware at higher prices in the future.
Meta Bets on Target Groups That Still Exist
Instead of relying on the slowly growing group of enthusiasts, Meta is investing further – and relying on the principle of hope.
The company suspects that the numerous teenagers who are growing up with VR and consider it a natural part of their entertainment world could develop into affluent core users of tomorrow. "My conjecture, and it is only conjecture, is that sophistication, polish, and production quality become more important to young audiences as they age up," writes Pruett regarding the group of the first "VR natives."
Another hypothetical target group that Meta is betting on is media-savvy adults. The company expects this cohort to gain importance in the coming years. They are expected to buy VR headsets initially as a TV replacement to watch movies and series, but also to discover VR games that rely on hand tracking rather than controllers.
Meta's next two VR headsets are likely to be tailored precisely to these two target groups: an ultra-lightweight VR headset for media consumers, which could be released without controllers and is reportedly scheduled for release in 2027 according to recent reports, and a subsequent Meta Quest 4 for adult VR enthusiasts and VR natives who have grown up. Only officially confirmed is that Meta is working on two new VR headsets.
Everything Remains the Same in the VR Industry
Mature VR natives and media-savvy adults as future growth drivers of the Quest ecosystem: Both groups have so far existed primarily in the minds of the company's management. Whether they will actually play a role and be able to help Meta Quest succeed again remains to be seen in the coming years.
For now, everything remains the same: Meta continues to invest heavily in hardware and content and tries to tap into new user groups. This makes Meta by far the largest investor in virtual reality, without which the VR industry would be hardly imaginable.
Meanwhile, Meta's biggest competitors are hesitating: The future of Apple Vision Pro is currently uncertain, Samsung Galaxy XR has received hardly any software updates since its release and is still limited to the USA and South Korea, and there is no word from Sony regarding a Playstation VR 3. At least ByteDance and Valve intend to launch two new VR headsets this year with Project Swan and Steam Frame.
(mki)
