Impending unemployment: "There are only two strategies to react correctly"

Unemployment is becoming more widespread in Germany in some sectors than in others and is rising sharply, especially among young academics. Chairs that were previously secure are now wobbly or not being filled at all. How can and should people deal with such profound changes in our society? "Be active and definitely don't resign yourself," says Dr. Uwe Kanning. He is a professor of economic psychology at the Osnabrück University of Applied Sciences.

heise online: What happens to employees when their situation deteriorates and there is no foreseeable solution because the economy simply isn't picking up?

Kanning: This causes many people concern, even real fear, of losing their jobs. Current prosperity, and even future prosperity with retirement in old age, depends on it. However, we must also see that not all people are equally affected by the consequences of a possible job loss. For some, the situation is much more threatening, for example, if they live in a structurally weak region to which they are family-bound. At the other extreme, young and flexible people can say: Oh well, losing a job isn't that bad. I'll just learn something new.

heise online: The number of unemployed academics under 30 has increased extremely in recent years. Is the younger generation losing faith in studying and the associated professional future because of this?

Kanning: In general, unemployment among academics is low, and if the rate doubles, it is a strong increase in absolute terms, but not in relative terms, which says much more about a change. An academic education is still the best protection against unemployment. Therefore, this increase in unemployment among aspiring and young academics will not lead to mass resignation, but will only affect a small subset of people.

heise online: The industrial sector was particularly affected by job cuts last year. The automotive industry was hit the hardest. This industry was once Germany's flagship industry worldwide. How does this loss of image affect employees?

Kanning: The situation is particularly bad for employees in this sector. The German automotive industry has been a beacon of quality and luxury for decades. I know from employees in this sector that many are passionate about their products. For them, it is difficult to understand that these products are less in demand and that there is some competition that produces much cheaper, but still high-quality products. In addition, if they have to switch industries, they will face significant income losses, because the automotive industry pays much higher salaries at all levels than other industries. A move from the automotive industry is therefore usually an economic decline.

heise online: However, modern industries like IT are also affected by job cuts. For many years, training or studying computer science was considered a guarantee against unemployment. Does an entire profession now have to rethink?

Kanning: I assess the situation for IT personnel more positively than for other occupations. Currently, IT jobs are being cut. In the longer term, in 10 or 15 years, this will balance out. Simply because with the ongoing digitalization of society, companies and authorities will need much more service personnel who, for example, take care of IT security. The short-term slump will almost certainly balance out in the long term.

heise online: Many tech companies cite automation and artificial intelligence as a key reason for layoffs. AI is developed by IT professionals. Are they digging their own graves?

Kanning: That seems to be partly true. From what I gather, it's heading in the direction that people today are programming the software that can program itself tomorrow or the day after. Many programmers are thus eliminating themselves – and then have to reorient themselves because they have developed technical alternatives to themselves.

heise online: Programmers would hardly have had an alternative?

Kanning: I don't think so either. People also enjoyed the amenities of their jobs, such as being able to work flexibly from home and being very well paid. But that might just be a phase of a few years in their professional biography.

heise online: For a long time, employees in Germany were firmly in the saddle and didn't have to worry about their jobs. Now many chairs are wobbly. How does this situation affect affected people?

Kanning: Uncertainty is increasing and questions arise: What happens after job loss? Can I keep my job after all? Do I have to retrain? Can I still pay off my loans in the future? The worst thing that could happen socially would be political radicalization. For years, we have been experiencing in Germany that things are becoming more extreme at the fringes of our society and more people are accepting it. I hope that this does not happen and that people realize that there is always an alternative in terms of retraining and flexibility. It shouldn't sound cynical now, but perhaps impending or actual layoffs are also an opportunity for some to try something new and not do the same thing day after day in the same industry for 20 or 30 years. What is also important: The recession we are currently in will not last forever. At some point, things will pick up again.

Despite rising unemployment, there is a shortage of skilled workers? Isn't the solution to one problem already in the other?

Kanning: Absolutely. Two or three years ago, it was said that we would have to bring in several hundred thousand people to Germany annually to solve the shortage of skilled workers. On the one hand, there is a search for skilled workers, and on the other hand, jobs are being cut. At least to some extent, this could compensate. This may give some people a glimmer of hope.

Does fear of job loss affect work?

Kanning: It can lead to an increase or decrease in performance, because here too, individuals react very differently. If they are relatively well-qualified and flexible, it can be expected that they will leave their employer because they realize: I have to take care of my professional future myself, even though a termination is not currently imminent. On the other hand, there are people who are afraid for their jobs and try harder because they don't want to be the first to go. Still others resign.

heise online: What else can people do for self-protection against their fear of losing their jobs?

Kanning: Above all, it is important not to bury your head in the sand and not to resign yourself. They should actively address their situation and consider: Am I someone who is threatened by job cuts in the coming years, and if so, what can I do? Basically, there are two strategies. One is to look for a new job early on, so that you can apply from a position of strength. The other is to think about further training. It is important to be proactive yourself and not just wait and see.

heise online: What can employers do?

Kanning: Only some sectors will have to consistently reduce staff in the coming ten years. The others will continue to need their staff, just with different qualifications. Employers should consider how to qualify their employees so that they are better qualified for the work of tomorrow. To do this, they must invest money. Just like with apprentices: Because they are the employees of the future, companies should invest in employees who are currently not really needed. With further training, however, they ensure that they will be more valuable to the employer again in the future. It is wise for employers who can afford it to keep their people. Because when the economy picks up again, they will be needed again.

heise online: Thank you for the conversation.

(mho)