Survey: Record interest in iPhone upgrades – Android sector weakening

A global survey by Morgan Stanley indicates a record number of planned iPhone purchases in 2026. However, the ongoing RAM and storage crisis continues to suggest a bleak outlook for this year. According to data from their "AlphaWise" survey conducted by the market research unit Morgan Stanley, Android manufacturers could be particularly affected.

Apple losing less ground

According to the Morgan Stanley survey, Android sales figures could decline by up to 15 percent year-on-year this year, while iPhone sales are expected to drop by only 2 percent, according to an excerpt on Investing.com. Analyst Erik Woodring stated in a memo on Monday that while the results appear positive "at first glance," they mask a more challenging year for the overall market.

According to the data collection, upgrade rates for the next 12 months in the USA and China could reach "all-time highs," which simultaneously means that replacement cycles are "accelerating to a 10-year low," according to Morgan Stanley analyst Erik Woodring. Woodring further writes that Apple is "the only major global smartphone vendor expected to gain share in 2026,” driven by “new and advanced features,” stronger device quality and broad "upgrade eligibility". Woodring adds that iPhone replacement rates are expected to reach a 5-year high, underscoring the company's relative strength.

Android users with less brand loyalty

Meanwhile, according to the report, Android manufacturers are facing an "unprecedented inflation of storage costs" which, due to higher prices, will "significantly dampen demand in the smartphone market." Furthermore, the Morgan Stanley report assumes that lower brand loyalty and higher price sensitivity will make Android "more vulnerable compared to Apple."

Further details of the survey were shared by Creative Strategies analyst Max Weinbach, showing that Google's Pixel smartphones are the only other notable exception amidst user willingness to switch.

According to Weinbach, Google's Pixel and the iPhone are the only brands gaining new users. As the Creative Strategies analyst emphasizes, Apple's growth rate is of far greater significance due to the company's size. For this reason, Morgan Stanley assumes that "Apple will be the clear winner in market share in 2026, while Android vendors will likely lose share."

Due to the difficult market situation, Morgan Stanley is lowering its forecast for global smartphone shipments in 2026 to 1.1 billion units from a previous 1.3 billion. This represents a year-on-year decrease of 13 percent.

Apple's projected strong growth this year is already evident in China: In the first nine weeks of 2026, the iPhone maker grew by a full 23 percent year-on-year, according to figures from Counterpoint Research, while the market recorded a declining trend.

(afl)