State Threat Management: Mentally ill individuals with risk potential
Mentally ill and potentially dangerous? Federal and states expand early warning systems with data exchange, case management, risk analysis.
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Who is dangerous – and who is ill? In the coalition agreement of the current government of CDU, CSU, and SPD, it was stipulated in spring 2025 that a joint risk assessment and an integrated inter-agency risk management system should be introduced to prevent acts of violence, for "the early detection of corresponding risk potentials in individuals with psychological abnormalities."
Since danger prevention is a matter for the states, the Federal-State Working Group for Early Detection and Threat Management (BLAG FEBM) was tasked with developing nationwide standards for the prevention of violence by mentally ill individuals. To this end, it also dealt with issues of cross-departmental network work and data exchange. Findings from health, security, justice, and immigration authorities are to be consolidated to enable a reliable risk assessment.
For identified dangerous individuals, a joint case management system is to exhaust all preventive options – health-related, police-related, and immigration-related. According to a resolution by the Conference of Interior Ministers of January 27, 2025, the BLAG FEBM is also to examine how the existing legal possibilities "can be adapted or expanded, particularly under the PsychKGen (Laws on Mentally Ill Persons) of the states."
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On January 30, the Bundesrat called for swift adjustments in its resolution "Protecting people with mental illnesses, recognizing dangerous potentials": In cases of recognizable potential for harm to others, action must be taken "quickly and for the benefit of both the public and the affected person." To this end, the exchange of health data with findings from danger prevention authorities under data protection regulations should be examined, and better nationwide networking between security, health, weapons, and other relevant authorities should be achieved.
A spokesperson for the BMI told heise online that they want to actively promote cross-departmental cooperation in the area of early detection and threat management at federal and state levels. The discussion process for assessing and developing suitable measures has been initiated by the BMI and the Federal Ministry of Health (BMG) with the states in accordance with the resolutions of the Standing Conference of Interior Ministers and Senators of the States (IMK) and the Conference of Health Ministers (GMK). "Representatives of the judiciary are also involved" in the exchange.
In its resolution from the 98th meeting, the Conference of Health Ministers (GMK) had in turn called on the federal government to provide sufficient research funding for early diagnostics and the development of predictors, including the use of AI, for the prevention of violent crimes by people with mental illnesses.
The report by the BLAG FEBM is now available but is still undergoing consultation within criminal police committees. A decision on its publication will be made there; the BMI currently provides no further information.
However, some federal states have already begun to integrate findings from the BLAG FEBM into their risk management processes, and where necessary, the respective PsychKGen (Laws on Mentally Ill Persons) are being amended, particularly in the area of data transfer. The goal is early detection of warning signs in order to take preventive action in a timely manner and prevent serious acts of violence.
Police Risk and Threat Management
The results of the BLAG FEBM concern "individuals with risk potential and psychological abnormalities." A mental illness alone does not make anyone a target of police measures – there must be concrete behavior that indicates a dangerousness in the sense of a threat. Such individuals are to be identified early and subjected to a risk assessment within the framework of case management: based on risk and behavioral factors, a risk level is determined, which triggers corresponding danger prevention measures.
Concepts for the early detection of potential perpetrators of violence have existed for some time concerning various groups of people. This includes the search for "potential mass shooters" with the concept for early detection of and dealing with individuals with risk potential, which has been applied in North Rhine-Westphalia as the "PeRiskoP" project since 2022. Or the risk assessment tool RADAR-iTE (Rule-based analysis of potentially destructive perpetrators for assessing acute risk – Islamist terrorism), introduced nationwide for the police in 2017, with which "individuals from the Islamist spectrum who are known to the police are assessed regarding their risk of committing a politically motivated serious act of violence in Germany."
Some states also rely on standardized processes in dealing with stalking cases or domestic violence to better assess potential dangers. And regardless of projects and concepts, the police generally follow up on tips when necessary for danger prevention in individual cases. For example, the Bavarian government explained in March in its response to a written inquiry (PDF) that "in an acute danger situation (...) an initial assessment of the presence of a mental disorder and a risk assessment are regularly carried out by the police forces deployed," who then, depending on the individual case, involve the (psychiatric) crisis service, which helps in assessing dangers. Currently, an inter-ministerial working group, led by the State Ministry for Family, Labor and Social Affairs (StMAS), is addressing the question of how to better prevent acts of violence by mentally ill people – including possible changes to the BayPsychKHG (Bavarian Law on Mentally Ill Persons).
Permanent Danger with Mentally Ill Individuals Posing a Risk?
Several federal states are planning to amend their state PsychKG (Laws on Mentally Ill Persons) to improve data exchange. A key aspect is informing security authorities about the return of potentially dangerous individuals to public spaces. To this end, the categories of danger are being expanded. In addition to present danger, the prognosis of permanent danger also enables the implementation of corresponding measures.
If the drafts in North Rhine-Westphalia and Lower Saxony are passed, a danger will also be present if an event causing harm is unforeseeable, but due to a lack of insight or special circumstances, dangerous behavior by the mentally ill person "can be expected at any time."
The already enacted amendment to the Hessian Law on Mentally Ill Persons stipulates that psychiatric hospitals must immediately inform the police and public order authorities about the upcoming release of a person who has been involuntarily committed due to danger to others, if "a significant danger to the life, health, or other important legal interests of others could be expected from the committed person in the foreseeable future without further medical treatment." In Lower Saxony, the draft law provides for a tiered reporting obligation. If there is an foreseeable significant danger to others and treatment is unlikely, facilities and socio-psychiatric services can transmit relevant data to the police – in cases of repeated involuntary commitment due to danger to others within the last 12 months, they must transmit the data. If third parties were harmed in the past year, the data must be transmitted. North Rhine-Westphalia intends in its draft law to also stipulate that authorities must be informed about furloughs or stress tests if the original commitment was due to danger to others.
Practical Implementation
In the Hamburg Network for Personal Risk Management, the interior, social affairs, and justice authorities have been working more closely together since August 2025 to detect potentially dangerous developments in mentally ill individuals earlier. The core is a structured exchange of information and case conferences held on an as-needed basis, which are intended to trigger joint action by all parties involved even at the first sign of risk. Measures range from therapy and support services to socio-psychiatric care and danger prevention measures such as offender interventions, long-term observation, or court-ordered commitment.
The data collected and processed for risk assessment of an individual within the network include not only data from police and judicial proceedings (criminal and public order proceedings, convictions, court orders for commitment) but also data on political opinions, religious/ideological beliefs, and extensive health data: "especially diagnoses, excerpts from medical reports and expert opinions, course of illness and treatment, behavior during the course of detention in all areas: conflicts, work, leisure, etc." – this is stated in the declaration on the processing of personal data (PDF) of the network.
In Berlin, as a result of the BLAG, the police are introducing a three-stage model in a pilot project to detect mentally ill individuals with dangerous potential earlier and prevent serious acts of violence. First, operational units receive clear criteria for on-site assessment, followed by a central risk analysis at the police headquarters. If suspicion intensifies, the State Criminal Police Office (LKA) takes over with an in-depth assessment involving psychotherapeutic expertise. Depending on the outcome, case conferences, socio-psychiatric measures, or involuntary commitments can be initiated. The Police President of Berlin, Slowik Meisel, emphasized to dpa: "He remains primarily a sick person" and added that the police can try "to identify these people and provide the public with an initial protective shield against serious violence through police measures."
Mentally Ill Individuals in Police Databases
In its resolution "For a Change in Policy on Internal Security" adopted at the beginning of 2025, the CDU declared the NRW project PeRiskoP a model that it wants to "expand nationwide." However, it failed with the demand for the introduction of a "GIM" (Gefährder mit gemischter und instabiler Motivation – Perpetrator with mixed and unstable motivation) category for mentally ill perpetrators of violence.
The spokesperson for the BMI told heise online that there are currently no plans for a register of mentally disturbed individuals or a joint database of the states with the federal government, and there are no planned changes in practice regarding the storage of individuals with mental illnesses in INPOL. The police database INPOL already contains the category "Mental and Behavioral Disorders." Such a personal alert (PHW) is clearly highlighted when queries are made.
As long as there is no self-harm or harm to others, mental illnesses or disorders generally do not trigger police measures and do not lead to storage in INPOL. There must always be a relevant reason. A PHW can only be assigned if data relating to a person is already stored in the networked system and the PHW is necessary for the protection of this person and/or for the self-protection of police officers, as emerged from a response by the Federal Government (PDF) last year regarding the recording of people with mental illnesses by security authorities.
Therefore, the person has either already come to the attention of the police for a criminal offense and/or is a vulnerable or dangerous individual. A vulnerable person, for example, could be someone known to intend to commit suicide. A helpless person could be a missing person in a mental crisis. Police officers are neither psychologists nor psychiatrists; therefore, the police cannot simply declare a person as mentally ill (nationwide) in INPOL based on their own assessment.
The guideline for assigning person-related alerts (PHW) in the INPOL network states that the PHW for mental and behavioral disorders (PSYV) "may only be assigned if it is medically determined that the affected person suffers from a mental illness and this can result in dangers to themselves or others, particularly to police officers." How the police obtain these medical statements is a matter for the states, the BMI explains in response to an inquiry from heise online; "regarding any police access to the electronic patient record or corresponding information rights and seizure regulations, the BMI has no information on such plans."
As of July 15, 2025, 16,043 personal data records in INPOL were stored with the PHW PSYV. According to the BMI spokesperson, approximately 15,000 individuals with this alert were still stored in March 2026. Individuals stored with the PHW PSYV are not informed by the police. However, affected individuals can find this out in the case of INPOL (Federal) by submitting a request for information at the BKA.
Therefore, there is no separate nationwide register for mentally ill individuals. Instead, the states are independently implementing threat management for high-risk cases; data storage and transfer are governed by state law. Data exchange between the police and public order authorities for danger prevention is common practice: indications of mental illness can be relevant in weapons and driver's license law if there are doubts about reliability or suitability – what matters are not diagnoses, but concrete moments of danger. If there are indications of a health-related danger, the health department or the socio-psychiatric service is generally informed.
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