Analysis of Google I/O: Overdue honesty

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At first glance, this year's Google I/O was “business as usual”: the usual number battles with investment sums (6 times more than a few years ago), the number of tokens processed monthly (7 times more than the previous year) – and the usual advancements of AI models (Gemini 3.5), new smart glasses, more agents, more capabilities.

However, between the lines of the major AI event, another, crystal-clear message shone through: Business – but not “as usual.” Because the ordinary business in AI currently means spending a lot of money but earning very little from it. Competitors like OpenAI and Anthropic are still in start-up mode, unlike Google, which is now consistently focusing its artificial intelligence on monetization. They spend money transferred to them by venture capitalists who are betting on the business of the future. The (large) black numbers will come later.

An analysis by Malte Kirchner

Malte Kirchner has been an editor at heise online since 2022. In addition to technology itself, he is interested in how it is changing society. He pays particular attention to news from Apple. He is also involved in development and podcasting.

The good times are over

This year's I/O showed that after ten years of AI First and an unprecedented catch-up race, after OpenAI first kicked off the hype with ChatGPT, Google apparently sees itself in a position of strength to finally get down to business. When the new Ultra tier for $100 per month was announced – a subscription model that Google says will unlock new AI models like Gemini 3.5 Flash and exclusive features – the applause conspicuously came only from one corner of the Shoreline Amphitheatre in Mountain View, California: presumably the Google section with its employees. “The accountants,” a participant later joked.

Developers, media representatives, and other guests took note rather silently that Google is primarily introducing a new, additional high price tier for heavy users. However, if you listened closely, you noticed that the name Ultra was also frequently mentioned in connection with new features. The days when the entire world of AI functions was accessible to you at the price of a Netflix subscription – they seem to be drawing to a close. Google had already taken measures in the spring to curb uncontrollably rising AI costs in the cloud through automated budget limits.

Consumers pay indirectly

Google is not the first player on the market to announce higher prices. But in Mountain View, they apparently know that the entire multi-billion-dollar apparatus with immensely expensive data centers, AI researchers, and energy costs cannot be financed solely by heavy users.

And that was the second “aha” moment for market observers: With the Universal Commerce Protocol (UCP), Google is positioning itself as an intermediary in the consumer sector. This immediately brings to mind the profitable pay services for smartphones that Google and Apple offer. And it's an elegant way to make money from users because they only pay indirectly. Google's bill goes to the merchants, who will soon have no choice but to use the Google shopping cart if it catches on. Google's new search is intended not only to compare prices but also to process bookings and purchases directly itself, including automatic calls to companies. They will pay for this either with their margin or pass the costs on to customers. In any case, Google is in the clear and making money with AI.

Overdue honesty

This is not reprehensible. It is overdue honesty. Anyone who wants AI to be sustainable will sooner or later have to face the question of costs. Creative ideas are needed not only in the further development of the models. The acceptance of AI in everyday life has grown among many people, as Google impressively demonstrated with figures. But is there also the willingness not only to look a gift horse in the mouth but also to feed it?

This question for the future will have to be answered in the coming years. Google I/O 2026 – at first glance, it is the now usual developer conference: where AI dominates everything, the Android operating system plays at best an indirect role, and developer topics around new Chrome and Android APIs take place on extensive grounds for the professional audience. However, between the lines, a new decade in the AI era was hinted at: the decade of payment. It remains to be seen how consistently Google will pursue this path.

(mki)