2.1 children per family: increasingly difficult to achieve globally

Shrinking populations are actually a top theme in science fiction. Think of Philip K. Dick's masterpiece “Do Androids Dream of Electric Sheep?”, the basis for the cult film “Blade Runner” or P.D. James' novel “The Children of Men”. Margaret Atwood's “The Handmaid's Tale” could also be included. It is increasingly becoming a current topic in research on global population development.

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Humanity is not dying out, but it is shrinking on a global scale, and for the first time in 200,000 years. 2023 is the year in which global fertility fell below the so-called replacement level of 2.1 for the first time. This is claimed by economist and demographer Jesús Fernández-Villaverde from the University of Pennsylvania.

This "Child Peak" could also have been in 2022 or 2024, as data from all countries for these years is not yet available, but the shrinking trend is unmistakable. Fernández-Villaverde's model calculations for the future point to massive upheavals: If Thailand – without counting immigration – were to maintain its current fertility rate of 0.8 for the next 200 years, its population would shrink from 63 million to 2 million.

The birth rate in Germany

In any case, what Fernández-Villaverde states in the interview is somewhat more drastic than some official statistics. The German Federal Institute for Population Research, citing United Nations figures, suggests in a model calculation “a long-term convergence of global fertility just below the replacementlevel.”  Humanity is shrinking, but everywhere and increasingly convergently. The USA is shrinking with a Total Fertility Rate (TFR) of 1.57 children for women of childbearing age, while 2.1 children are needed to maintain the population size constant without immigration.

The Trump Account, a program in which the US government provides $1,000 per child for investment in stock markets, has not yet changed this situation. But what about Tunisia (1.56), Mexico (1.55), or Turkey (1.48)? Not to mention Thailand, already mentioned, which will have a population of 2 million natives in 200 years with a TFR of 0.98. But is it really a crash, as some reports predict?

In his dissertation, Fernández-Villaverde studied Colombia with a TFR of 2.8-3 and calculated the TFR for 2026 to be 1.8 in 2001. Now he has to note that it is 1.1 and not an outlier. All of Latin America is experiencing a massive decline in the birth rate. Regarding this figure, one can ask what reactions are sensitive. Fernández-Villaverde, originally from Madrid, would like to replace the ugly residential silos in the suburbs with network-like structures in the spirit of urban planner Ildefons Cerdà and replace the disappearing schools with community meeting places.

Tech bros think completely differently and praise AI, which will save us from shrinking. This is of course short-sighted, because AI in all its forms does not contribute to the social and pension systems of countries, as a reader wittily noted in the heise forum. Others see fierce political distribution struggles, from which right-wing populist parties benefit.

With a TFR of 1.35, many answers are possible. But there are also questions: Why are German university towns, with a rather young population, often at the back of the birth rate rankings? The Bavarian State Office for Statistics has a likely nationwide explanation: Young female students in these cities are mostly more concerned with their studies and career entry than with immediate family planning.

(mawi)