Air cabs: investments in Advanced Air Mobility have fallen sharply
If air cabs go into commercial operation in 2025 at the earliest, flights would be quite expensive, according to a study. Nevertheless, they could be profitable.
This is what it could look like when air cabs are in commercial operation.
(Image: Lilium)
Investment in companies that develop small aircraft or multicopters such as air cabs has fallen sharply recently. In 2021, investment in the area known as "Advanced Air Mobility" (AAM) amounted to 6.8 billion euros, in 2022 around 3.3 billion and last year it was 1.2 billion, according to a study by management consultants Roland Berger together with the German Aerospace Center (DLR).
The most important factor for the decline in investment is a generally difficult economic situation with rising interest rates, said Manfred Hader, Partner at Roland Berger. However, the reluctance of investors also reflects concerns as to whether and when AAM services can be economically viable at all.
The first commercial air cab services are not expected until 2025 at the earliest, so no real data is yet available on their costs. The manufacturers of such air cabs themselves assume that a flight of 160 km from New York to Philadelphia, for example, would cost a good 200 euros. Overall, the calculations of eVTOL developers and independent institutions ranged from one to 23 US dollars per passenger-mile.
Premium market for air cab services
According to the study, air cab services currently represent more of a "premium market". They are therefore more suitable for the well-heeled; the market could still be profitable, as the target groups are willing to pay, according to the authors of the study. They have calculated that a 12-kilometer air taxi flight from Hamburg Central Station to the Airbus site in Finkenwerder would cost between 175 and 350 euros for one passenger. The journey would take around 11 minutes, compared to around 40 minutes on the ground. With a remote-controlled flight, a second passenger could fly instead of the pilot and the ticket would be half as expensive.
The study considered the take-off and landing fees of the vertiports as well as the future prices for flight-ready batteries and their service life, as well as for the use case of a shuttle flight over 17 km from Hamburg-Blankenese to Hamburg Airport with up to four passengers plus luggage. The 12-minute flight would cost 75 to 160 euros per passenger at 75 percent seat occupancy of the air cab. A cab or limousine service would take 45 minutes and cost between 65 and 140 euros for the entire vehicle. An air cab flight from Hamburg Airport to Sylt would cost up to 300 euros per passenger.
Business model and cooperation needed
Although air cab services will remain a premium niche market in the first few years, they could be economical and profitable in limited use cases and suitable scenarios in commercial operations, the study continues. However, the authors of the study believe that developers such as Lilium, Archer, Job or Skydrive would have to demonstrate a convincing business model for air cabs to achieve broader economic success. To reduce costs, all stakeholders in the entire AAM ecosystem should also work together. This is the basis for an "urgently needed supply of further investments".
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The air cab manufacturers have already received several thousand orders. Eve Air Mobility leads the rankings with 2800 pre-orders, followed by Vertical Aerospace with 1500 and the German company Lllium with 750. According to the study, Volocopter, also a German company, has 450 orders. Most orders come from airlines and often are not binding.
(anw)
