Transport forecast 2040: strong growth by rail, cars remain dominant

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No other mode of transport in Germany will grow as much as rail in the coming years – However, this will not change the dominance of road transport in the foreseeable future. This is shown by the current traffic forecast for 2040, which Federal Transport Minister Volker Wissing (FDP) presented in Berlin on Thursday.

"The results clearly show that traffic is growing and that we can only achieve our goals of demand-driven transport by expanding all modes of transport," said the Minister. "We need to continue to go full steam ahead with maintaining and expanding the railroads." However, the expansion and new construction of roads must also be driven forward. "This is essential to accommodate the traffic we will have in this area."

The traffic forecast involves long-term scenarios that depict traffic development up to 2040 under certain conditions. On this basis, the federal government reviews its plans to expand the infrastructure, the so-called demand plans for the individual modes of transport road, rail and water.

60 percent more passenger kilometers by rail

In passenger transport, the authors of the study expect an increase in transport performance of almost eight percent by 2040 compared to 2019. Among other things, this is due to a growing population, mainly due to immigration, which forms the basis of the forecast.

According to the forecast, rail transport will grow the most, by around 60 percent to around 163.4 billion passenger-kilometers. "This increasing demand requires punctual, reliable rail transport," said a Deutsche Bahn spokeswoman. The Group is currently focusing on this with its refurbishment program and the modernization of the rail network and stations. Analysts expect domestic air traffic in Germany to increase by 30 percent to around 66 billion passenger kilometers.

One percent decline in car traffic

In contrast, car traffic is expected to fall by around 1 percent to more than 907 billion passenger kilometers by 2040. Although this means that the share of private motorized transport will fall significantly, it will remain the dominant mode of transport for people, accounting for around two thirds.

The forecast for freight transport in Germany paints a similar picture. Here, too, transport performance will increase significantly by more than 31 percent by 2040. Rail and road will each grow almost equally by around a third. This means that rail freight's current share of around 20 percent will not change much by 2040.

Federal government misses its own targets

This means that two of the federal government's key targets, which it had actually already set itself for 2030, are up for grabs: to double passenger rail traffic by the end of this decade and to increase the share of rail freight traffic in total transport volumes in Germany from around one fifth at present to one quarter by then. Wissing did not want to cancel these plans. "These are ambitious goals, in the end we can only implement what is feasible" he said.

77 percent CO₂ reduction is not enough

Transport in Germany is one of the few sectors in which the CO₂ reduction targets have not been met for many years. According to the Federal Environment Agency, emissions in the years before Covid-19 were even higher than in 1990. This is set to change in the coming years.

The authors of the transport forecast assume that CO₂ emissions in transport will fall by around 77 percent by 2040. According to the forecast, alternative drive types in road traffic will make the biggest contribution to this. Around two thirds of the cars on the road by then will be battery electric, said study author Tobias Kluth. However, the report admits that even with this reduction, the target set out in the Climate Protection Act of reducing emissions in the transport sector by 88 percent by 2040 would not be achieved.

Conservationists see a lack of will

Based on the traffic forecast, the German government now wants to review the extent to which plans for future investment in infrastructure need to be adjusted accordingly. However, as the forecast itself is also based on future political measures, some critics speak of a self-fulfilling prophecy.

"Volker Wissing hopes to build or expand thousands of kilometers of freeways and federal highways and then states that car traffic will not decrease and more trucks will drive," criticized Greenpeace transport expert Lena Donat. Other forecasts indicate that the trend would be entirely different with just a few political changes.

The German Nature and Biodiversity Conservation Union also criticized the study. "Unimpressed by the fatal consequences for the environment, the forecast cements the status quo and sells the construction and expansion of roads as having no alternative," said Pauline Schur, team leader for transport policy.

Wissing calls for realism

Other associations are calling for infrastructure planning and investment to be geared towards political goals rather than traffic development forecasts. "Anyone who thinks about the transport turnaround in terms of targets will take ambitious measures and not hide behind forecasts," said Dirk Flege, Managing Director of the pro-rail association Allianz pro Schiene.

Wissing rejected the criticism. "The basis for this traffic forecast is assuming that we will have implemented the entire rail demand plan by 2040," he said. "Of course, such a forecast should not be developed based on political wishes, but because of realistic assumptions that ultimately lead to the calculated results."

(vbr)