Apple Intelligence: Not really a selling point for the iPhone 16?
A well-known analyst does not believe that Apple's AI functions will entice many users to buy a new iPhone. But it doesn't have to stay that way.
An iPhone 16 Pro.
(Image: Sebastian Trepesch)
How much impact will the introduction of Apple Intelligence have on sales of the iPhone 16, 16 Plus, 16 Pro and 16 Pro Max? Many stock market observers initially believed that Apple would jump on the AI bandwagon here – better late than never – and thus become more attractive on Wall Street, which has been in an AI frenzy for several years. Accordingly, the share price rose significantly last year. However, it is unclear whether there really is a new “super cycle” in which users of older iPhones will be encouraged to switch en masse. The well-known analyst Ming-Chi Kuo from the Taiwanese investment firm TF International Securities is now warning against overestimating the impact of Apple Intelligence.
“No evidence” of increased sales due to AI
In a report to investors this week, he writes of “potential downside risks”, i.e., the risk of Apple shares being overvalued. His industry contacts had told him that Apple would face some “challenging hurdles” in 2025. iPhone growth could also “almost stagnate”. Overall, Kuo sees no evidence that Apple Intelligence is driving hardware upgrades, nor does he see this in the services business.
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In fact, Apple has emphasized that Apple Intelligence will not become a paid service, as is the case with OpenAI, Anthropic and others. CEO Tim Cook considers AI itself to be a core technology that is part of the overall system. “This suggests that earlier optimistic forecasts by some analysts and media on Apple Intelligence, which should generate subscription revenue and boost the services business in the foreseeable future, were too optimistic,” says Kuo.
No Apple Intelligence bear
Kuo also mentions surveys according to which “most” iPhone users have little interest in Apple Intelligence and Apple has difficulties promoting its “on-device AI” model, which pays particular attention to data protection, while ChatGPT, Claude and Co. rely primarily on the cloud and are therefore potentially more powerful.
However, Kuo also writes that he is not a “stock market bear” when it comes to Apple Intelligence – at least in the long term. Nevertheless, it is important to be aware of short-term risks. In fact, Apple's iPhone sales are currently doing well: the company is said to have never sold more expensive iPhone 15 and 16 devices in a third quarter than recently. According to market observers, the number of devices delivered was also at an all-time high.
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