LNG imports fell significantly in 2024

Three years ago, new terminals for landing liquefied natural gas in Europe were supposed to make a decisive contribution to energy security. In terms of actual use, they apparently did not play such a major role, at least in 2024. According to an analysis of market data, the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA) has now reported that European LNG imports actually fell significantly by 19 percent. Investments in renewable energies are likely to have played a role here. Overall, gas consumption in Europe was at its lowest level for eleven years. This was also noticeable in LNG imports.

The decline in imports of cryogenic liquefied natural gas was particularly sharp in the UK (-47%), Belgium (-29%) and Spain (-28%). All three countries have been importing LNG for many years or, in the case of Spain, even have the largest LNG infrastructure in Europe, which is why it is suspected that deliveries have been partly redistributed to other, newly added terminals in Europe. Germany, for example, only commissioned its first LNG terminal in Wilhelmshaven at the end of 2022, which was built to compensate for the lack of pipeline imports from Russia.

Russia was able to sell more LNG

Based on the available data, the IEEFA assumes that regasification plants in the EU will only be operating at 30 percent capacity in 2030. Last year, they were already only operating at 40 percent capacity. The EU states have invested in or promoted the expansion of infrastructure to become less dependent on Russia.

The USA continues to be the main beneficiary on the supplier side. It holds a 46% share of LNG deliveries to Europe. However, imports from the United States fell by 18% in 2024. In contrast, LNG imports from Russia increased to the same extent. Tankers carrying Russian gas docked in France, Spain, and Belgium in particular. Between January and November 2024, the EU countries would have spent around EUR 6.3 billion on Russian LNG – One third of the gas was purchased on the spot market at short notice, i.e., it was not supplied based on long-term contracts from times of better trade relations.

Growth expected in 2025

IEEFA expects LNG deliveries to increase again in 2025, as Russian pipeline deliveries through Ukraine amounting to around 15 billion cubic meters will have to be compensated for. However, according to the forecast, imports are still unlikely to reach the level of 2022 and 2023.

IEEFA is a non-profit organization that specializes in research and analysis in the field of energy and finance. It is funded by foundations and donations, but does not accept any money from companies in the fossil fuel industry. As it is committed to supporting the transition to sustainable energy, experience has shown that it interprets the data rather critically regarding fossil fuels.

(mki)